Hawking Irreversibility and Socio-Economic Determinism

Physicist Stephen Hawking has suggested that climate changes is about to become unstoppable. One may introduce a concept of Hawking irreversibility as the point where temperature has risen so much that the global warming consequences threaten the survival of mankind. The recent news out of China that its CO2s are increasing again makes this term highly policy relevant. Moreover, the methane emissions have started to augment, which also calls up Hawking irreversibility. The drive behind these dire developments is the endless zest for affluence and wealth, fueled by ever larger energy consumption.


Introduction
Climate scientists warn, already before the implementation of the UNFCCC Agreement from Paris 2015 that the decarbonisation plan decided in global governance will not be enough to stabilize temperature at + 2 Celsius, at most. Global average temperature will most probably be larger than the COP21 objective. At what point on the temperature scale, we move into Hawking irreversibility is not known. But a rise beyond + 4 degrees will have dramatic consequences for the ecology and human social systems.
A few days before the start of the UN global environment reunion COP23 (6-13 November 2017) in Bonn, the major study Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment (USGCRP, 2017), was published in Washington. It examines the global warming problematic from the point of view of the US and the world, based upon years of research by a large group of US scholars. It definitively recommends a combination of national and international policy-making to halt temperature www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/ape Advances in Politics and Economic Vol. 1, No. 1, 2018 2 Published by SCHOLINK INC. rise, despite the fact that the US government is negative. It renders an impressive list of climate change impacts upon the US territory and points decisively at human causes. We must then ask: Can decarbonisation policies be implemented or managed? The COP23 by the UNFCCC reflects upon the very same problem.
If or when global warming reaches the point of no return with temperatures perhaps plus 4-6 degrees Celsius higher, then the present calamities will be magnified: a) Melting of polar ice massively: b) Retraction of glaciers globally; c) Huge land losses along the costs (Bangladesh); d) Too high temperatures for men and women to work outside (South Asia); e) Food production decline (

No Kuznets' Curve for CO2s
The Greenhouse Gases (GHG) have a strong anthropogenic sources, being linked with socio-economic development or economic growth via the consumption of energy, especially the burning of fossil fuels, use of cement and emission of methane from landsinks, cows, microbes, etc. The UNFCCC has focused on halting CO2s and decreasing them in a gigantic decarbonisation policy globally in this century. Figure 1 shows that there is no Kuznets' curve (first rising, then descending) for CO2: richer countries emit more CO2 than poor ones. International aviation is a very major source of CO2 emissions, and it is booming.

Figure 1. GDP-COP for All Countries
Source: All countries in the world have formed a Common Pool Regime (CPR) to save the atmosphere These are enormous goals, as only one country-Uruguay-is near GOAL I and GOAL II. Some countries have lately had stalling or even decreasing CO2s, but many other still face an upward sloping curve.

Energy
Energy generates not only survival but also affluence and wealth, being vital to both poor and rich countries. If energy consumption is reduced, there will be global economic recessions and mass poverty as well as unemployment. But Planet Earth consumes too much energy from one major source: burning fossil fuels. One may employ some standard sources on energy consumption and what is immediately obvious is the immensely huge numbers involved-see Table 1.

CO2s
One may attempt to calculate exactly how increases in greenhouse gases impact upon temperature augmentations. Take the case of CO2s, where a most complicated mathematical formula is employed: T = Tc + Tn, where T is temperature, Tc is the cumulative net contribution to temperature from CO2 and Tn the normal temperature. Moreover, the general formula reads: dT = λ*dF, where "dT" is the change in the Earth's average surface temperature, "λ" is the climate sensitivity, usually with degrees Celsius per Watts per square meter (°C/[W/m2]), and "dF" is the radiative forcing. To get the calculations going, we start from lambda between 0.54 and 1.2, but let's take the average = 0.87. Thus, we have the formula

Figure 4. CO2s and Temperature Rise in Celsius
No one knows where the critical temperature rise occurs, i.e., from which Celsius degree global warming becomes "irreversible", to use Stephen Hawking's expression. It could be as low as + 2 Celsius or as high as + 5 Celsius.
There are several greenhouse gases, but the two biggest are the CO2s and methane. The UNFCCC has concentrated upon halting and reducing carbon dioxide, but now we are about to face a methane threat.
Moving now and up to 2030, according to the COP21's GOAL II for decarbonisation would eliminate Hawking irreversibility Time has come for halting and reducing CO2 emissions by real implementation and not utopian dreams of a sustainable economy (Sachs, 2015). There is nothing to wait for any longer (Stern, 2015), as the COP23 must set up the promised Super Fund. No time for politicking in the UN any longer (Conca, 2015;Vogler, 2016). Yet, could socio-economic determinism drive mankind to take proper action according to the COP21 Treaty?

Methane Emissions
We shall use the methane concentration curve from mid 2013 to beginning of 2017 issued by NOAA ESRL https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/ gently suggested by Dlugokencky and Kuniyuki.
Why mid 2013? Because it is the last maximum of the second derivative before 2017. Since then, the curve is approximately linear, and we will derive its equation hereunder.
Why should we start with a linear approximation, the simplest approximation that can be found? Because it is a mean between two extreme scenarios: The most important contribution to the recent rise of methane concentration is mainly due to the increase in activity by microbes, present in points a), b) and d) (Nisbet, in the above reference), mainly in the tropics. This study suggests the positive feedback of the chemical increase of activity of microbes is starting now, yielding a quasi-exponential curve in the near future, or at least a steeper curve.
We will derive examples of future increase in methane concentration due to such a positive feedback, in addition to a linear approximation. For this, we will not simulate differential equations, which would be the best option, but simulate the hypothetical solution of a transition (bifurcation) between 2 steady-states, with a S-shaped function (which approximate the bifurcation between 2 steady-states) multiplied (to have continuity) by the linear approximation. We shall approximate the S-shape curve by an transitory (5 years) exponential curve in continuity with the linear approximation. in ppb. From this equation, one can estimate the approximate the temperature rise due by methane, by applying to y the formula (1), and multiply it by 25. It will be valid for close future, but will probably be underestimated for farther future, where it will probably closer to an exponential.

7)
The promise of financial support-Super Fund-has to be clarified about both funding and budgeting. A management structure has to be introduced for oversight of the entire decarbonisation process. As the emission of methane increases, the reduction of CO2s is all the more important, if irreversibility is to be avoided with a margin.
The resort to atomic power plants is highly contested. Nuclear power gets safer and safer, but the problem of storing the used uranium has no solution. If global warming becomes really bad, all these radioactive materials could be released back in our social systems and nature. Some countries expand atomic energy, whereas others dismantle it.

Solarpower Parks-A Model Example
Consider now Table 3, using the giant solar power station in Morocco as the benchmark-How many would be needed to replace the energy cut in fossil fuels and maintain the same energy amount, for a few selected countries with big CO2 emissions? If countries rely much upon water or geo-thermal power or atomic power, the number in Table 2 will be reduced. Table 2 displays the dependency upon fossil fuels that may go over 90% in some countries.
Each country energy predicament is both situation dependent and path dependent, reflecting natural resources and past policies.
The key question is: Can so much solar power be constructed in some 10 years? If not, Hawking may be right. Thus, the COP23 should decide to embark upon an energy transformation of this colossal size.
Solar power investments will have to take many things into account: energy mix, climate, access to land, energy storage facilities, etc. They are preferable to nuclear power, which pushes the pollution problem into the distant future with other kinds of dangers. Geo-thermal power comes from volcanic power and sites.
It has been researched has much a climate of Canadian type impacts upon solar power efficiency. In any case, Canada will need back-ups for its many solar power parks, like gas power stations. Mexico has a very favourable situation for solar power, but will need financing from the Super Fund, promised in COP21 Treaty. In Latin America, solar power is the future, especially as water shortages from the Andes may be expected. Chile can manage their quota, but Argentine needs the Super Fund for sure.
Uruguay has the best number globally, relying upon water and biomass.  need external financing and technical assistance.

Conclusion
We are not yet at the point of irreversibility, meaning there are still a few degrees of freedom for government policy-making and international governance. The plans of the UNFCCC must be implemented by all nations: Goal I: halting CO2 growth, Goal II: reducing CO2s until 2030 and Goal III: near complete decarbonisation by 2075. But time is certainly running out.