Students’ Grades in Basic Education Certificate Examination as Predictor of Grades in West African Certificate Examination

This study investigated how students’grades in Basic Education Certificate Examination (BECE) predict grades in West African Certificate Examination (WACE) in English Language, mathematics and Igbo Language subjects. The study adopted correlation research design and was guided by three null hypotheses. The scores of 1,200 students’ were randomly selected from the population of 10,041 students’ from sixty (60) government owned secondary schools in Awka Education Zone, Anambra, Nigeria who sat for the BECE in 2011, 2012 and 2013 and then WACE in 2014, 2015 and 2016. The data were collected through the principals of the respective schools sampled and from the Director Examinations Development Centre (EDC) Awka, Nigeria. Linear regression analysis with aid of SPSS were used to ascertain the extent to which students’grades in BECE predict grades in WACE in English Language, mathematics and Igbo Language. The hypotheses were tested at 0.05 alpha level of significant and found that 84.1% of students’ grades in WAEC English language was predicted by their grades in BECE English language, 49.2% of students’ grades in WAEE mathematics was predicted by their grades in BECE mathematics while 88.7% of students’ grades in WAEC Igbo language was predicted by their grades in BECE Igbo language. The study recommends that the government of Nigeria should strengthen Basic Education to improve achievement in senior secondary school since. students’ grades in BECE predict their grades in WACE.

in the past two decades was the introduction of the 6-3-3-4 system of education (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2014). The system came as a result of criticisms made by some educators on the traditional 6-5-4 education system in Nigeria. According to Chukwuma (2010), the 6-3-3-4 education system is the greatest mile stone in the history of organized education in Nigeria.
Later, Universal Basic Education (UBE) was introduced with an enhanced curriculum that is expected to meet the millennium development goals (MDG's) by 2020 (MDG, 2012).With the introduction of UBE, the 6 3 3 4 system of education became implemented as 9 3 4. According to this new arrangement, the first 9 years are spent in primary school and Junior Secondary School (Primary 1 to JSS 3); the next 3 years are spent in the Senior Secondary School (SSS) and the last 4 years are spent in the university. According to Obioma (2011) this new policies initiated under UBE for the attainment of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) provided for integration of primary and Junior Secondary Schools into a continuous system of schooling (Obioma, 2011). Although, the curriculum of the Junior Secondary differs a little from that of Senior Secondary in areas of subjects and the numbers of subjects offered, they have in common some basic core subjects like, English Language, Mathematics and one Nigerian language like Igbo, Hausa or Yoruba (NERDC, 2008). These little differences in the Junior Secondary and the Senior Secondary usually affect the student' transitional improvement in terms of entrance examinations and their subsequent adaptation to the senior secondary level (Obioma, 2011 (Ojerinde, 2013).
According to UBEC (2012), 46.7% of students who registered in the examination performed poorly in English language and Mathematics subjects while about 22.1% passed the Igbo language subject. In 2013, 55% of students failed to score high in English language and Mathematics while 30% of students passed Igbo language subject (NERDC, 2013). Based on these poor performances of students' in the examinations, determining the actual grades of students becomes imperative as it will help to predict their outcomes in senior school examinations (Bolaji, 2015). Grade is the scholastic standing of a student at any given moment. According to Daniels and Schouten (2012), scholastic standing could be explained as the grades obtained in a course or groups of courses taken. Thus, in predicting academic achievement, Daniel and Schouten emphasize the use of grades in examinations and reported that grades could serve as both predictive and criterion measures. Findings made by Gay (2007) reported that high school grades could be used to predict college grades. However, these findings were contrary www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/asir

Method
Correlation research design was used for the study. The area of study was Awka education zone in Anambra State, Nigeria. The scores of 1,200 students were randomly selected from the population of 10,041 students of the sixty (60)

Results
Research Question one: How do students' grades in BECE 2011 predict their grades in English language conducted by WAEC in 2014?  In Table 3, the predicted value of the students' grades in 2016 WAEC in Igbo language is 0.942. The coefficient of determination R-Square is 0.887. This shows that 88.7% of students' grades in WAEC Igbo language can be predicted by their grades in BECE Igbo language.

Hypothesis one: Students' grades in BECE 2011 do not significantly predict their grades in SSCE in
English language conducted by WAEC in 2014.   Table 5 revealed that the p-value is 0.000. At 5% alpha level of significant, the p-value is less that the tolerance level. Therefore, hypothesis one which states that students'grades in BECE 2011 do not significantly predict their grades in English language conducted by WAEC in 2014 is here by rejected.
Therefore, students' grades in English language conducted by WAEC in 2014 were predicted by their grades in BECE 2011.

Hypothesis two: Students' grades in BECE 2011 do not significantly predict their grades in SSCE in
English language conducted by NECO in 2014.      Table 9 revealed that the p-value is 0.000. At 5% alpha level of significant, the p-value is less that the tolerance level. Therefore, the hypothesis three which states that Students'grades in BECE 2013 do not significantly predict their grades in Igbo language conducted by WAEC in 2016 is here by rejected.
Therefore, students' grades in Igbo language conducted by WAEC in 2016 were predicted by their grades in BECE 2013.

English language conducted by WAEC
This study found that 84.1% of students' grades in WAEC English language were predicted by their grades in BECE English language. It further revealed that for every unit increase in the students' grades in BECE English language, a 1.4 unit increase in the students' grades in WAEC English language was predicted. Students'grades in SSCE 2014 in English language conducted by WAEC was significantly predicted by their grades in BECE2011 in English language. This finding is in agreement with the finding of Jemilehim (2008) who asserts that achievement in BECE has been found to be significantly related to achievement in WAEC examination in English language. Findings made by Gay (2007) reports that high school grades could be used to predict college grades. This finding shows that students who obtained an acceptable grade in their BECE English language will as well obtain an acceptable grade in WAEC English language. In other words, students whose BECE grade in English language is poor will as well obtain a poor grade in WAEC English language.

Students'grades in BECE 2012 in mathematics as predictor of their grades in SSCE 2015 in
Mathematics conducted by WAEC  (2013) found that students' grades in SSCE Mathematics were significantly predicted by their grades in BECE.

Igbo language conducted by WAEC
The analysis of the research question five revealed that88.7% of students' grades in WAEC Igbo language was predicted by their grades in BECE Igbo language. It further stated that for every unit increase in the students' grades in BECE Igbo language, a 1.3 unit increase in the students' grades in WAEC Igbo language was predicted. Also, students'gradesin SSCE in Igbo language conducted by WAEC was significantly predicted by their grades in BECE Igbo language. The findings are in agreement with the findings of Chukwuma (2010) who reported that there was a significant positive relationship between students' performance in BECE and SSCE in Igbo language subject. This finding was contrary to the findings of Faleye and Afolabi (2008)

Conclusion
The researchers found that students' grades in SSCE conducted by West African Examination Council in English language, Mathematics and Igbo language subjects were significantly predicted by their grades in BECE.

1.
The government of Nigeria should strengthen Universal basic Education to improve achievement in senior secondary school since students' grades in BECE predict their grades in WACE.

2.
The study also recommends that BECE preparation of students should be given more serious attention because of its predictive values on students' WA CE grades. Furthermore, the BECE should be graded in stanine like SSCE to facilitatethe relationship comparison of students' in the two examinations.