Trump and Biden, Whose Policy is “Better”?

Abstract

2020 is the year of US presidential election, with Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic counterpart Joe Biden running for president. In this paper, we focus on different president’s policy especially on economic field. In addition, “the different policies affect both America and China’s economy” is considered. This paper also gives some responds and suggestions for China to deal with different economic policies in America. Based on the instruction, we mainly solved three questions.

To analyze different candidates’ economic policies and explore the impact in the U.S, we establish four series of factors by using Multiple Regression (MR) and then use Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to build a whole model of general factors. Specially, we choose “COVID-19 fighting measures” to be the area we will explore, and we select Susceptible Exposed Infectives Recovered (SEIR) model to predict the impact caused by COVID-19. After that, all the advantages and disadvantages can be analyzed. If Donald Trump continues his political career, the development of American economy will be predicted by Gray model according to the GDP in previous years. Oppositely, if Joe Biden successfully runs for the president, some policies will be changed, and it is helpful to predict the GDP by using MR method. The conclusion shows that Biden’s policy is better than Trump’s for economy in the U.S.

We build a new model to predict the possible impact of different candidates elected on China’s economy. The influence caused by different economic policies can be typically shown through several specific companies such as Huawei. Annual reports from different companies are collected and some data particularly related to international trade can be analyzed. Additionally, it is helpful to use Gray model and MR method to predict the companies’ economic situation on behalf of some significant parts of Chinese economy.

From a historical point of view, the connectivity of the world economy, the collaborative division of labor among countries and the exchange of personnel are irreversible historical trends. No matter who the candidate is, our strategic approach to economic policy will not change, but some details may be changed. For Donald Trump’s policies, we will take national protection measures in some high-tech areas. But for Biden, the policy in China must be changed.