California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Targets (2030 and 2050): Trends, Projections and Analysis

Fossil fuels are the primary sources of energy powering economic development globally. Increased fossil fuel consumption produces Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) which build in the atmosphere and trap heat irradiated from the Earth. The increased concentration of these gases causes global warming and extensive climate disruptions. This study examined GHG emissions data from 2000-2017 to evaluate whether California will meet GHG emissions reduction target of 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 as mandated by California’s Executive Order B-30-15. California’s ability to reduce GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 (Executive Order S-3-05) was also evaluated. Results indicate that transportation, electric power, industrial and commercial/residential) GHG emissions reductions declined by small magnitudes in the 18-year period (0.17% to 2.49%). In agriculture, refrigerant and recycling/waste agencies, emissions reductions increased in the 18-year period (0.08% to 0.8%). For 2030 and 2050 emissions reductions targets, no emissions category sector will achieve the targeted reduction. The highest emissions reduction amounts discrepancies between observed and expected were in transportation, industrial and commercial/residential sectors (2030); and in transportation, industrial and agricultural facilities (2050). An analysis of current trends and technological developments in each emissions sector is presented to guide and structure future emissions target reductions.


Introduction
Global economic growth is directly linked to increased energy consumption. International efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to well below 2°C and to "pursue efforts" to avoid a 1.5°C temperature rise requires a transition to net-zero emissions energy systems by 2050 (Tong et al., 2019). For the past five decades, the main sources of energy powering economic development in many countries have primarily been fossil fuels that include oil, coal and natural gas. Increased fossil fuel consumption produces gas emissions like CO2, methane (CH4), water vapor, nitrous oxide (N2O), and ozone (O3). These gases rise into the atmosphere and prevent (or trap) heat irradiated from the Earth from escaping into the outer reaches of the atmosphere. Increased concentration of these gases causes global warming which brings about extensive climate disruptions (climate change). Climate change is a change of climate attributable directly or indirectly to human activity, which in addition to existing natural climate variability, alters the composition of the global atmosphere for extended long periods of time typically decades (UNFCCC, 2020a).
Climate changes affects the planet in a variety of ways including altering global wind circulation patterns and ocean current cycles. These changes cause extensive rainfall disruptions in many areas causing drought, severe heat waves, extended rainfall, severe hurricanes, and extensive fires in many parts of the globe. Due to the expected impacts of climate change, progress achieved in global population health in recent decades is at risk of reversal (Watts et al., 2018). Climate change is already contributing to higher air pollution levels, deforestation, ocean acidification, increased wildfires, expansive droughts, intense heat waves and sea-level rise, which threaten the health and livelihoods of citizens (EUC, 2020). Vulnerable populations like indigenous peoples and people whose mode of existence is primarily reliance on agriculture and other regions such as small island developing states and the Arctic, are more vulnerable to its impacts (Watts et al., 2018). Similarly, efforts by countries in technologies to increase reflectance of solar radiation; and 3) reduce the rate of CO 2 emission and recapture large quantities of CO 2 already emitted (2018). To respond to the challenges posed by climate change, two main strategies have been adopted by many countries: mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation refers to the reduction of magnitude of future climate change by cutting greenhouse gas emissions like developing renewable energy sources, reduction of energy consumption, and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks like afforestation (IPCC, 2014). Adaptation refers to preparation and dealing with the negative consequences of climate change (for example, protecting coastal zones from sea-level rise) as well as taking advantage of the positive consequences of climate change (increased food production in areas are too arid for agriculture) (Demski et al., 2017).
Climate Neutral Now (CNN) is an "initiative launched by UN Climate Change in 2015 to encourage everyone in society to take action to help achieve a climate neutral world by mid-century, as enshrined in the Paris Agreement". (UNFCCC, 2020b). According to UNFCCC, the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-operating under the UNFCCC umbrella-works with governments, non-governmental organizations, and citizens towards global climate neutrality by addressing their own climate footprint in three main ways: 1) monitoring greenhouse gas emissions (carbon footprint); 2) deciding on actions that will reduce those emissions; and, 3) compensating for those emissions that cannot be avoided using UN certified emissions reductions (a form of carbon credit) (UNFCCC, 2020b).
As per the 2015 Paris Accord, the IPCC advocated emissions reduction targets of 80% below 1990 emission levels to stabilize global greenhouse emissions to a sustainable level. The majority of countries in Europe are striving for between 60% to 80% reduction by 2050. More than 110 countries representing up to 75% of global emissions have ratified the Paris Accord agreeing to work together to collectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions sufficiently to slow global warming. This sustained progress would ensure reduction of greenhouse gas emissions sufficiently to a steady state where by 2100 greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are approximately constant or decreasing (Erickson, 2017).
In the United States, a number of states have adopted the same emission reduction measures tweaked to accommodate the needs of state governments, corporations, non-governmental organizations, and private citizens. As of 2020, the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions notes that 23 states and the District of Columbia have implemented statewide greenhouse gas reduction targets (CCES, 2020).
Despite the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Accord, these states have vowed to uphold the U.S. commitment of reducing emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 (CCES, 2020).
In the state of California (CA), the former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger issued Executive Order S-3-05 of 2005, to reduce greenhouse gases by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. In April 2015, Governor Edmund Gerald "Jerry" Brown signed Executive Order B-30-15 to reduce emissions to 40% below 1990 by year 2030. This legislation was enacted to ensure that California's 2050 commitments (as per EO S-3-05) remain on target. According to the California Air Resources Board (CARB), CA www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/eshs Education, Society and Human Studies Vol. 1, No. 2, 2020 116 Published by SCHOLINK INC. has made tremendous strides in reducing harmful air pollutants and cutting down on greenhouse gas emissions from industry, energy production, transportation and other sources (CARB, 2020a). To ensure sustained progress in emissions reduction, the CARB has maintained annual greenhouse gas In 2017, California's most recent inventory data shows annual emissions measured at 424 mmtCO 2 e.
The changing climate has particularly affected the state in many ways: 1) worsening wildfires which are destroying lives, property, and disrupting businesses; 2) prolonged dry spells and droughts especially between the years 2012-2016; 3) with more than 840 miles of coast line and at least 85% of Californians living/working in coastal counties, there is significant risk of sea level rise and flooding; 4) resulting health consequences of droughts, wildfires and flooding; 5) California accounts for over 13% of the nation's total agricultural value, thus disruption of the state's food supply is a big concern; and, 6) there are significant effects on natural ecosystems primarily disruption of life-support systems and wildlife species.  (Zar, 2009) was used to test whether there were differences between the observed and expected emissions reduction rates between 2018-2050. Existing CARB data from 2000-2017 was reviewed from each emission category (agencies in transportation, electric power, industrial, commercial and residential, agriculture, agencies producing gases with high warming potentials, and recycling/waste agencies).
The following parameters were noted and used in the statistics calculated: i. The 1990 total emissions given by CARB for California was 427 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (mmtCO 2 e).
ii. Total emissions for 2017 amounted to 424 mmtCO 2 e, which is not significantly different from the total emissions amount in 1990 of 427 mmtCO 2 e. Thus, the 1990 amounts were used to project annual percentage emissions for each category (transportation, electric power, industrial, etc.).
iii. The annual mean percentages for each category were then calculated and used to project reduction rates for the years 2018-2030 assuming they would remain the same (observed reductions The mean percentage emissions reduction rates calculated in the various emissions categories (Table 2) indicate that by the year 2030, no emissions category will have achieved the targeted reduction. The three highest emissions reduction amounts discrepancies between observed and expected were found in transportation, industrial and commercial/residential facilities. The three highest percentage differences between the observed and expected reductions were found in HGW potential emissions industries which emit gases like R-22-the most common refrigerant today; recycling/waste generation agencies;   no emissions category will have achieved the targeted reduction (Table 4). The three highest emissions reduction amounts discrepancies between observed and expected were found in transportation, industrial and agricultural facilities. Commercial/residential facilities emissions reductions were a distant fourth. The three highest percentage differences between the observed and expected reductions were found in industrial, transportation and electric power generation facilities (Table 4). Overall, there was a significant difference between the observed and expected emissions reduction amounts for 2050 (Chi-square=2345, dg=6, p<<0.05). This highly significant result disproves the first hypothesis of this study of no difference between total observed and expected mean emissions reductions by year 2050. Assuming the mean emissions reduction rates observed between 2000-2017 persist, transportation agencies, industrial and commercial/residential facilities would take the longest time to achieve the 2050 emissions reduction targets (713, 556 and 542 years respectively, Table 5). To reach the targeted 2050 emissions reduction levels of 80% below the 1990 levels, the seven GHG emission categories must have annual emissions reductions of at least the amounts shown in the column labelled "expected reductions/year" for the years 2018-2050 (Table 6)     GHGs like carbon dioxide impacts health indirectly through alterations of climate, they are not directly harmful due to the typically low outdoor concentrations they are commonly found (Cushing et al., 2018). However, GHG emissions from fossil fuels combustion are accompanied by other hazardous co-pollutants such as Particulate Matter (PM), ozone-forming Nitrogen Oxides (NO x ), and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) that cause increases in mortality due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases (Cushing et al., 2018). The short-and long-term health benefits accruing from decreases in GHG emissions from fossil fuel combustion greatly improve local air quality; and evidence that the economic cost savings of reduced air-pollution-related illnesses and death outweighs the costs of GHG mitigation abounds (Smith & Haigler, 2008;Nemet et al., 2010).
Air pollutants have been implicated in cancer etiology, premature mortality, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cardiovascular disease; aggravate existing chronic conditions like type-2 diabetes; and raise risks of Alzheimer's disease and dementia (Apte et al., 2015;Erickson & Jennings, 2017;Erickson, 2017). Air quality regulations in the US in the past two decades have greatly reduced emissions from traditional polluting sources, such as Sulfur Dioxide (SO 2 ) and Nitrogen Oxides ( This study found that if current mean emissions trends in each sector persist in the decades ahead, California total GHG emissions will be short of targets by 143 mmtCO 2 e (in 2030, One critical front helping California with emissions reductions is the increased adoption of renewable energy sources. California leads the nation in electricity production from renewable energy sources primarily solar, geothermal and biomass (USEIA, 2020a). In the decades ahead, the continued development of renewable energy alternatives (especially wind, solar, geothermal and hydropower) will remain a major force in greenhouse gas emissions reductions. The retirements of older, less-efficient fossil fuel units, availability of renewable energy tax credits, and the continued decline in the capital cost of renewables will fuel increased adoption of clean energy in the years ahead.
California state legislature already passed Senate Bill 350 (2015), which requires all utilities in the state to source half of their electricity sales from clean, renewable sources such as wind, solar, geothermal,  (Table 1); making this sector about 37% short of meeting the emissions reductions target for 2030 (Table 2), and 93% short of meeting the 2050 target (of emissions 80% below 1990 levels, accounting for about 35% of total U.S. industrial energy consumption by 2050. The iron and steel industry energy use is projected to decline by 19% while the paper industry will increase energy consumption by 11%. Other industries like lime and cement, refining, glass and aluminum smelting are projected to remain stable in energy use over the same period (USEIA, 2020c).

California's Cap-and-Trade Program
Globally, cap-and-trade has emerged as the favorable and main regulatory mechanism for pricing carbon and reducing GHG emissions from large stationary sources that emit more than 25,000 metric tons of CO 2 e per year (for example, refineries, cement production facilities, oil and gas production facilities, glass manufacturing facilities, and food processing plants) (CARB, 2020c).  containment. To meet a cumulative GHG reduction target of 15% from 2015 to 2020, the total number of allowances in circulation ("cap") was planned to decrease by 3%-3.5% annually. Companies could also meet 8% of their compliance obligation by purchasing GHG emission reduction credits generated by offset projects located in the US (1 offset=1 metric ton of CO 2 e). Regulated firms could be required or incentivized to purchase offsets that are linked to local projects that reduce GHG emissions, while also improving air quality in the regions where their facilities are located. Such local offset projects could include electrification of railyards and ports, cleaning up truck fleets, development of solar cell parking roof arrays, or financing retrofits to reduce GHGs and co-pollutant emissions from other local emission sources. Such local offset projects could enhance government oversight and promote community partnerships in project monitoring and emission verification. Nevertheless, offsets have been cited as capable of undermining improvements to local air pollution by undercutting financial incentives for industries to reduce emissions on site (Cushing et al., 2018). Cutbacks in the use of more carbon intensive energy sources imported from outside the state (such as electricity generated from coal-fired rather than natural gas power plants) could also be used by regulated entities to meet emission reduction goals in lieu of in-state reductions (CARB, 2020c).
The cap-and-trade program also covers fuel distributors (natural gas/propane fuel providers and transportation fuel providers) to address emissions from transportation fuels and from combustion of other fossil fuels. Facilities that do not adhere to program requirements are subject to stringent penalties (CARB, 2020c). As has been observed in the European Union, emissions permits are readily affordable for most sectors thus failing to incentivize polluters to reduce carbon emissions, and invest in abatement technology. Monitoring compliances and enforcement by CARB has not been consistent, plus the complex and unnecessarily costly red tape industry has to go through in their emissions reporting. CARB must ensure that industrial operators use the most cost-effective emissions-reducing technologies to curb emissions to air, water and soil. As seen in the European Union, carbon prices are not market competitive perhaps due to oversupply of permits and/or decreased demand due to decarbonization among regulated polluters. As long as carbon markets are not viewed by industry as effective and credible regulatory policy for the future, it will not be enough to industrial-distance from carbon-intensive production (Cushing et al., 2018;Bayer & Aklin, 2020 The cap-and-trade market system is far from a perfect mechanism for GHG emissions reductions.

Commercial/Residential Sector (CR)
Greenhouse gas emissions from the commercial and residential sectors are dominated by the combustion of fossil fuels in households and commercial businesses such as space heating, cooking, and hot water or steam generation (EPA, 2020). Residential buildings use energy for cooling, heating, lighting, refrigeration, clothes and dishwashing, cooking, water heating, and appliances. For the 18-year period (2000-2017) mean emissions reductions in this sector were the lowest in all sectors at about 0.17 million metric tons of CO 2 e per year (Table 1). As a result, this sector fell 38% short of meeting the emissions reductions target for 2030 (Table 2); and 60% short of meeting the 2050 target (of emissions 80% below 1990 levels, Table 4). With the business-as-usual model ( Commercial buildings use energy for ventilation, lighting, refrigeration, cooking, cooling, water heating, computer and office equipment, and heating. CCES estimates that between 1979 to 2012, the number of commercial buildings rose by 40%, and the amount of floor space increased by 70%. Further, from 1990 to 2015, total CO 2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion from the commercial sector increased 20.4%, as direct emissions rose 13.2% and indirect emissions increased 23.3%. In 2015, a little more than half of the direct emissions came from on-site fossil-fuel combustion (CCES, 2020).
Commercial floor space is projected to grow by 40.5% from 2016 to 2050 and commercial energy consumption by 19.7%. Direct emissions are projected to rise by 20.4% driven by the increased use of natural gas, while indirect emissions are projected to decrease by 5.9%. While more electricity will be used for information technology and telecommunications, HVAC-related electricity use is expected to drop by 33% due to energy efficiency and population migration to the southern and western parts of the US. In addition, lighting intensity is expected to drop 56% due to increased efficiency from LED bulbs.
On-site electricity generation from solar photovoltaic panels and combined heat and power will also reduce the commercial sector's demand for grid electricity (CCES, 2020). The substitution of electricity for direct fossil-fuel combustion and improved energy efficiency, including through wider deployment of "intelligent efficiency" technologies provides major opportunities to decarbonize the buildings sector. However, some fundamental challenges remain including upfront costs, long payback periods, and "split incentives" among builders, owners, and occupants. Electrification of end uses will be a key pathway to reducing emissions and using electricity for heating, cooling, and hot water needs, instead of burning natural gas or fuel oil, can greatly reduce a building's emissions. Since buildings undergo several phases over their lifetime, including design, construction, operation, and retrofits, opportunities abound to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions by: 1) adopting more natural lighting, 2) sourcing construction materials with less embodied carbon, 3) changing consumer behavior and electricity usage patterns to reduce energy demand, and, 4) planning major retrofits over the life of the building including improving building envelopes and window insulation to control for air and moisture and optimizing the cost and performance of LED lighting (CCES, 2020).
Residential and commercial buildings represent one of the highest energy consumption fields in the world and in developed countries, between 20% and 40% of the total energy consumed relates to buildings (Moreno et al., 2014). The benefits of energy-efficient buildings to limit the global temperature rise to "well below 2°C" is imperative-if no action is taken to improve efficiency, global energy demand is projected to rise by 50% by 2050 (Foggia, 2018;Gan Vincent, 2018). Energy consumption in buildings emit close to 30% of the CO 2 emissions, while about 6% of the total emitted pollutants occur as a result of fuel consumption in households. Thus, a reduction in a building's environmental impact can lead to significant environmental benefits (Delavar & Sahebi, 2020). Over time buildings undergo several phases in design, construction, operation, and retrofits, thus, opportunities abound to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions. For example, designing a building to use more natural lighting, using construction materials with less embodied carbon, influencing consumer behavior and electricity usage patterns to reduce energy demand, or planning major retrofits over the life of the building.
Technological advances can increase energy efficiency by improving building envelopes and window insulation which help control air and moisture flow, and optimizing the cost and performance of LED lighting. include Many buildings occupants' lack of awareness and information about energy use will continue to be major challenges in energy efficiency. In addition, many commercial and residential properties monitor energy costs or embed them in rental charges which reduces transparency in energy use frustrating efficiency amongst occupants. Most properties have electricity smart meters in the U.S.
but there is some resistance experienced in smart metering due to cost, privacy and accuracy concerns.
On the positive side, many companies now offer hardware, software, and services to help commercial and residential users benchmark their energy usage against peers to make better-informed decisions (Di Foggia, 2018;CCES, 2020). Other challenges encountered are that people who construct, own, and occupy buildings will vary over time and buildings undergo different phases over their lifetime. For example, the builder (or owner) of a newly constructed building may not install the most energy efficient appliances or equipment, whereas the buyer or renter will be responsible for energy costs in the facility. This split incentive tends to favor lower upfront costs despite the net lifetime savings that could be achieved through greater energy efficiency. Upfront costs may also be an obstacle to switching existing buildings to alternative fuels or technologies such as heat pumps. In both the commercial and residential sectors, potential financial incentives for such investments include: streamlined loan processes, rebates, favorable loan terms, weatherization assistance for low-income households, property assessed clean energy (PACE) funds, and tax credits for both installing on-site renewable energy and pursuing specific green building certifications (Gan Vincent, 2018;CCES, 2020;Delavar & Sahebi, 2020).

Agriculture
The three major areas where emissions reductions have slightly increased in the 18-year period from 2000-2017 are agriculture, refrigerant and recycling/waste agencies, Table 1. The three sectors were found to be 41%, 46% and 41% respectively short of the 2030-targeted emissions reductions; and 76%, 70% and 59% respectively short of the 2050-targeted emissions reductions (Tables 2 & 4). The substantial contribution of food consumption to climate change necessitates urban action to reduce the carbon intensity of the food system, which contributes about 20-30% of global GHG emissions necessitating action to reduce the carbon intensity of food production and consumption (Mohareb et al., 2018).  Luckily, about 90% of CH 4 is destroyed through oxidation in the lower atmosphere by reacting with hydroxyl radicals.
CARB reports that agricultural emissions in 2017 were 16% higher than 2000 levels with crop production accounting for 20% of all agriculture emissions in 2017 (2020a). A more climate-friendly land use strategy for California will encourage the agriculture sector develop climate-smart agriculture practices. It will also support forest management practices that promote reforestation efforts (especially expanding urban tree-planting) which can store vast quantities of carbon sequestered from the atmosphere. Research in carbon sequestration indicates that U.S. forests will continue sinking carbon for many years, although recent research indicate that due to increased forest disturbances (like drought, wildfires and the spread of diseases), slower forest growth, and other factors the CO 2 absorption rate may begin to decline (Belenky, 2016). California aims to expand carbon sequestration in natural and working lands, defined as including forests, rangelands, farms, wetlands, and soils (CARB, 2020b).
These efforts can be supported with financial incentives, by regulation and monitoring, education/training/demonstration centers, and provision of agricultural inputs with lower emissions (like fertilizers). While the manufacture of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers produces a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, its application is also an important factor contributing to direct N 2 O emissions from agricultural soils (Chai et al., 2019). Increased N 2 O stimulates microbes in the soil to convert nitrogen to nitrous oxide at a faster rate than normal. Encouraging farmers to embrace changes in fertilizer use and agricultural practices will help to mitigate the release of nitrous oxide into the atmosphere. On a positive note, U.S. farmers and ranchers are today producing more crops, livestock, fruits and vegetables, fuel and fiber than ever before while using less water, protecting against erosion and conserving more soil, avoiding nutrient loss, increasing wildlife habitat and improving biodiversity while using less cropland. Farmers also contribute to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by sequestering carbon in that soil. In addition to sequestration, livestock producers have greatly enhanced their sustainability efforts by investing in methane digester technology-reducing methane emissions into the atmosphere and producing renewable energy (AFBF, 2020).

Refrigerants
In 2017, California's refrigeration and air conditioning equipment contributed 90% of ozone depleting substance substitutes emissions. These are primarily hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) used in refrigeration and air conditioning equipment, solvent cleaning, foam production, fire retardants, and aerosols. Due to their high global warming potential and refrigerant charge leaks from the system, refrigeration and air conditioning systems have high, negative environmental impacts (Beshr et al., 2017). Refrigerants are fluids used in refrigeration cycles to cool a space like a room, office building, or warehouse. among desired outcomes, will be necessary to achieve balanced solutions (Calm & Didion, 1998;Mota-Babiloni et al., 2016). For California to make progress with refrigerant emissions, progress will come with the state's EPA continued progress in regulation and monitoring, financial incentives to defray industry adoption costs of lower warming potential refrigerants, and education/training both for industry, and commercial/residential consumers.

Recycling/Waste Sectors
Reduction of emissions from energy consumption through recycling saves energy for less energy is needed to extract, transport, and process raw materials; and to manufacture products when people reuse things or when products are made with less material. The reduction of emissions from incinerators can be achieved by diverting certain materials from incinerators through waste prevention and recycling.
Landfills emit CH4 and waste prevention and recycling (including composting) divert organic wastes from landfills, reducing the amount of methane released.
As trees store carbon in wood (carbon sequestration), waste prevention and recycling of paper translates to leaving more trees standing in the forest. As noted by the EPA (2020), waste prevention and recycling in the US can make a significant contribution to reducing GHG gas emissions. The waste reduction and recycling initiative initiated and coordinated by the US EPA is expected to contribute at least 5% of the total greenhouse gas emission reductions. These can be enhanced by specific programs as follows: 1) WasteWi$e, a voluntary partnership between EPA and US businesses, state and local governments, and institutions to prevent waste, recycle, and buy and manufacture products made with recycled materials. 2) Pay-As-You-Throw Program where the EPA provides technical and outreach assistance to encourage communities to implement pay-as-you-throw systems for solid waste.
Residents are charged based on the amount of trash they discard creating an incentive for them to generate less trash and recycle more. Waste reductions of 15-28% have been reported in some communities with this program. 3) Developed with EPA support, the EPA/Chicago Board of Trade Recyclables Exchange is an online exchange that helps develop markets for recyclable commodities, thereby diverting more materials from the waste stream. 4) The EPA has also funded over 20 projects that demonstrate innovative waste reduction approaches with potential to achieve significant carbon emissions reductions (EPA, 2020).
Programs such as these launched by EPA and others have accrued climate benefits of waste management options in waste prevention, recycling, composting, incineration, and landfilling. The GHG emissions associated with managing ten types of waste materials (office paper, newspaper, corrugated cardboard, aluminum, steel, plastics, food scraps, and yard trimmings were estimated. The study concluded that waste prevention is the best management option, with recycling the next best approach to reducing emissions. For example, the EPA estimates that increasing the country's national recycling rate from its current level (27%) to 35% reduces GHG emissions by 11.4 mmtCO2e over landfilling the same material (EPA, 2020).

Practical Implications
California's policy-makers call for tightening California's low-carbon fuel standard, expanding programs to reduce methane emissions from dairy farms, increasing reforestation efforts, and lowering the amount of carbon that industry can release under the cap-and-trade program. The state needs to chaperone investments in modernizing the energy sector, boosting energy efficiency, and facilitating transitioning into a zero-carbon economy for older industrial systems. Some of the innovative strategies For California to meet its GHG emissions targets in 2030 and 2050, the current policy framework must be reviewed, adjusted, mandated and monitored. As shown in Tables 1 and 7, California must raise its current rate of emissions reductions (currently totaling 0.57 mmtCO2e/year) six-and-half times (to 3.75 mmtCO2e/year) by 2030; and by twenty-six-and-half times (to 15.08 mmtCO2e/year) to meet the 2050 target. With the climate change effects already being experienced in the state projected to get worse in the decades ahead, many of the current and future innovative technologies and trends discussed above in the seven emissions sectors will be crucial in meeting these emissions cuts obligations. Busch and Orvis (2020) highlight a package of six policies that in addition to reducing GHG emissions, they will generate significant economic and health benefits. The first three policy recommendations strengthen existing policies (cap-and-trade, clean energy use, zero emissions vehicles); the next three are suggested (accelerating building electrification, zero emission performance standard for industrial sector heating, and new emissions standards for cement and concrete production-since cement is the largest source of coal combustion in California).
Although California's ambitions must remain strong and optimistic to serve as a model for other states, and a testing ground for new policies and innovations, a number of emissions reductions challenges are projected in California in the years ahead. The 2018 wildfires are reported to have produced more than nine times greater emissions than were reduced across the entire state's economy between 2016 and 2017-with wildfires contributing more than the commercial, residential or agriculture sectors did in 2017. Recycling rates were also reported down in the state, and landfill emissions have been increasing since 2004 as commercial, and residential waste generation rises (Next 10, 2020). There are also uncertainties in the coming years especially at the national level. The Trump administration is currently preparing to take the final steps to pull the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement. A legal battle by the administration is also currently waiting to roll back California's emissions standards for new vehicles-despite the fact that cars and trucks make up about one-third of the GHG emissions in California.
California is the most populous state in the nation, has the largest economy in the nation (fifth largest economy in the world), and is second only to Texas in total energy consumption (USBEA, 2018).
Despite not wanting to hurt the economy, California must continue with its commitment to make significant, steady and impactful progress in GHG emissions reductions in the years ahead in all the seven emissions sectors.