Global Warming: CO2s, Temperature Rise and Solar Power Parks

For the COP23 reunion of states and international organisations in the fall with islands state Fiji as host holds that the focus must be upon the GOAL II in the COP21 Treaty, namely decarbonisation with 30-40 per cent of 2005 levels until 2030. A few countries now meet the GOAL I of halting the rise in CO2 emissions. And the rest should be asked and helped to do so. But the GOAL II is a very big challenge. It can only be fulfilled with massive investments in solar panel parks.


Introduction
When physicist Stephen Hawking raises the question of irreversibility of climate change, bringing mankind to the brink of extinction, one needs to stop and reflect: Could this really happen during this century? This crucial question concerns the efficiency of the work of the UNFCCC and its many meetings, like the coming COP23: Is the COP21 Treaty really enough to halt the carbonization of the globe?
In this article, we attempt two things that are highly relevant to Hawking's warning, namely: a) What is the link between CO2s and temperature rise? b) How could solar power parks promote decarbonisation?
If these two links are known more precisely, policy will be improved both by international governance and in nation policy-making. What remains not fully known is what temperature rise men and women can support: 4 degrees? Or 6 degrees-hardly! In any case, climate change at those levels will bring about very negative changes for mankind and other living species as well as the overall environment.

The Base Model: Energy and CO2 Emissions
To understand the real role that energy plays for the economy and CO2:s, we turn to the Kaya model.
The basic theoretical effort to model the greenhouse gases, especially CO2:s, in terms of a so-called identity is the deterministic Kaya equation (Kaya & Yokoburi, 1997).
In theories of climate change, the focus is upon so-called anthropogenic causes of global warming through the release of Greenhouse Gases (GHG). To halt the growth of the GHG:s, of which CO2:s make up about 70 per cent, one must theorize the increase in CO2:s over time (longitudinally) and its variation among countries (cross-sectionally). As a matter of fact, CO2:s have very strong mundane conditions in human needs and social system prerequisites. Besides the breading of living species, like Homo sapiens for instance, energy consumption plays a major role. As energy is the capacity to do work, it is absolutely vital for the economy in a wide sense, covering both the official and the unofficial sides of the economic system of a country. Concerning the equation (E1), it may seem premature to speak of a law or identity that explains carbon emissions completely, as if the Kaya identity were a deterministic natural law. It will not explain all the variation, as there is bound to be other factors that impact, at least to some extent. Thus, it is more proper to formulate it as a stochastic law-like proposition, where coefficients will be estimate using various data sets, without any assumption about stable universal parameters. Thus, we have this equation format for the Kaya probabilistic law-like proposition, as follows: (E2) Multiple Regression: Y = a + b 1 X 1 + b 2 X 2 + b 3 X 3 + ... + b t X t + u Note. Y = the variable that you are trying to predict (dependent variable); X = the variable that you are using to predict Y (independent variable); a = the intercept; b = the slope; u = the regression residual.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/regression.asp#ixzz4Mg4Eyugw  The findings show that total GHG:s or CO2:s go with larger total GDP, i.e., GDP per person * population. To make the dilemma of energy versus emissions even worse, we show in Figure 2 that GDP increase with the augmentation of energy per capita. This makes the turn to a sustainable economy (Sachs, 2015) unlikely, as nations plan for much more energy in the coming decades.

Figure 2. GDP and Energy per Person 1990-2014
Decarbonisation is the UNFCCC policy promise to undo these "dismal" links by making GDP and energy consumption rely upon carbon neutral energy resources, like modern renewables and atomic energy. Thus, the upward sloping curves must be reversed but still slope outward. Let us apply this model to three big countries along the new Silk Road, focussing upon affluence, energy, emissions and environment.

CO2-Temperature Rise
One may attempt to calculate exactly how increases in greenhouse gases impact upon temperature augmentations. Take the case of CO2s, where a mathematical formula is employed: a) T = Tc + Tn, where "T" is temperature, "Tc" is the cumulative net contribution to temperature from CO2 and Tn the one. "CO2" refers to all CO2, there is no distinction between man-made and natural CO2.
But when it comes to methane, it is not known whether the tundra will melt and release enormous amounts. But methane does not stay in the atmosphere long, like CO2s. For the other greenhouse gases, there is no similar calculation as for the CO2s: If humans could eat less meat from cows, it would mean a great improvement, as more than a billion cows emit methane. Food from chicken should replace beef meat and burgers, and eating less meat should prevail. The general formula reads: b) dT = λ * dF, where "dT" is the change in the Earth's average surface temperature, "λ" is the climate sensitivity, usually with degrees Celsius per Watts per square meter (°C/[W/m2]), and "dF" is the radiative forcing.
To get the calculations going, we start from lambda between 0.54 and 1.

Figure 4. Standard Energy Consumption Projections
All this new energy must come from renewables, for example solar power parks.

Catastophies
Sooner or later as global warming continues, outcomes like the following arrive, here with l) Great damage to the North and South Poles, Diminution of glaciers globally.  If countries rely to some extent upon wind or geo-thermal power or atomic power, the number in Table   1 will be reduced. The key question is: Can so much solar power be constructed in some 10 years? If not, Hawkins may be right. Thus, the COP23 should decide to embark upon an energy transformation of this colossal size.

Decarbonisation: COP21 GOAL II
Solar power investments will have to take many things into account: energy mix, climate, access to land, energy storage facilities, etc. They are preferable to nuclear power, which pushes the pollution problem into the distant future with other kinds of dangers. Wind power is accused to being detrimental to bird life, like in Israel's Golan Heights. Geo-thermal power comes from volcanic power and sites.
Let us look at the American scene in Table 2. Note. Average of 250-300 days of sunshine per year was used for Canada, 300-350 for the others.
It has been researched has much a climate of Canadian type impacts upon solar power efficiency. In any case, Canada will need backs ups for its many solar power parks, like gas power stations. Mexico has a very favourable situation for solar power, but will need financing from the Super Fund, promised in COP21 Treaty. In Latin America, solar power is the future, especially as water shortages may be expected. Chile can manage their quota, but Argentine needs the Super Fund for sure. Table 3 has the data for the African scene with a few key countries, poor or medium income. Note. Average of 300-350 days of sunshine per year was used.
Since Africa is poor, it does not use much energy like fossil fuels, except Maghreb as well as Egypt plus much polluting South Africa, which countries must make the energy transition as quickly as possible. The rest of Africa uses either wood coal, leading to deforestation, or water power. They can increase solar power without problems when helped financially.  Finally, we come to the European scene, where also great investments are needed, especially as nuclear power is reduced significantly and electrical cars will replace petrol ones, to a large extent. Note. Average of 250-300 days of sunshine per year was used.
The future energy transformation will be the largest management tasks mankind has undertaken. It must succeed, in order to avoid Hawking's dire warming. Above calculation is merely an example of its immensity to save humanity. Solar plants can be replaced often by solar facilities on roofs.

Conclusion
The COP Framework with its Treaty from Paris 2015 amounts to a global Common Pool Regime (CPR), but it is far weaker than Ostrom (1990) predicted, as gaming by the governments of the world could destroy it (Stern, 2007(Stern, , 2015Sachs, 2015;Conca, 2015;Vogler, 2016;Dutta, 1999).