The International Market of Wheat and the Food Security

Vasil Petkov


The article reveals the situation at the international market of wheat in retrospective period with a stress on the previous three years. It examines the connections between the initial indicators such as production, consumption, export, import, stocks, etc. Derivative indicators are studied in order to find export orientation and import dependency at the wheat market. The ratio between the supply and the demand is calculated and the functioning of the market mechanism is explained. The balance method is applied which is very adequate for empirical proof of the interaction between supply, demand, and prices. The fluctuations of international prices of wheat are explained on the basis of the results from the calculations. The prices can be considered as one of the best indicator for studying and forecasting of the market situation. A short-term forecast for the future development of the market and market prices is prepared. The most vulnerable up-to-date issues of the food security are discussed and recommendations are made, because the agricultural products are very important for the life of human beings and are of great concern of the policy makers. The methodology, the research methods, and the results will enrich the existing knowledge in this sphere.

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