Tax Incentives Policy, Firm Investment, Firm exports, and Gross Output: Panel Econometric Modelling

Cyrus Mutuku, Joseph Sirengo, Dr. Mohamed Omar


A panel econometric model consisting of 118,380 firms, spanning 2014 to 2019 was used to determine the impact of tax incentive policy on firm investment, firm gross output, and exports. A two-stage modelling approach was used, first the decision to invest or export was modelled using a binary logit model. In the second phase, the impact of the tax incentives policy was estimated. The decisions to export and invest are marginally driven by tax incentive policy. A shilling given as tax expenditure increases the probability of investing and exporting by 0.018% and 0.48% respectively. The results from the study imply that export and investment-related tax incentives are either redundant or have a negligible impact on their respective target variables.

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