The Cop21 Agreement: A Giant Illusion?

Jan-Erik Lane


The policy sciences, enquiring into the making and implementation of public decisions, has made several stunning findings that are highly relevant to the COP21 Agreement or Treaty if you so wish. They constitute the so-called “implementation gap” or the “hiatus of policy implementation”, analysed by late American Aaron Wildavsky and also Paul Sabatier. The enormous enthusiasm for the COP21 framework must be dampened when confronted with the lessons from policy implementation, especially in such an extremely decentralised approach taking place over so many years. But the signatories have to decide now how to halt the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG), especially the CO2:s in order to start decreasing them, hopefully (naively) to zero in 80 years. As the emergence of economically viable renewable energy is slow, the only quick solution is to remove coal as an energy source. That would resolve the star economist Jeffrey Sachs dilemma that decarbonisation would result in negative economic growth.

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