Causal Inference in Transport Policy Evaluation: Principle, Method and Application of Regression Discontinuity Design

Abstract

The methods of causal inference have swept the social sciences in recent years, and regression discontinuity design is one of the typical methods in causal inference. In the field of estimation and impact of traffic policy in developing countries, the research on cause-and-effect relationships is extremely limited. This paper introduces the principles, methods of regression discontinuity design, research application in the field of transport policy, and compares regression discontinuity design with methods of causal inference on the advantages and disadvantages in the field of transport policy. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the regression discontinuity design method into the field of transport policy evaluation, to look forward to its application prospects and to provide basic support for the application of regression discontinuity design in the field of developing countries' transport policy.