Coordination Failure and Opportunistic Behavior Results in Climate Chaos

IT IS very much astonishing that no policy or management strategy is forthcoming towards the new theory of climate change. Up to 2030, the living conditions for people will change to the worse, as the social systems face much less degrees of freedom in relation to nature at large in terms of agriculture, potable water, forests, sea level rise, ocean acidification, etc. Climate change will enter a run away stage, from which there is no return—Hawking irreversibility. Natural science cannot explain this defeatism, but major model in the social sciences account for the collective action problematic. Only country resilience remains when coordination fails, but many countries are extremely vulnerable. Millions will die.


Introduction
The climate change theory has not only been more and more confirmed. But it has also been given a more radical formulation. The abrupt climate change theory not only shortens the time of arrival of dismal consequences for living organisms but also strengthens the risks and hazards for mankind considerably. There is no policy response from the UNFCCC or the UNCP, or any other responsible political body like G20. Why?
Because we all know the global state coordination will fail in relation to global warming. The COPs are just gaming. The COP21 project is already by passed by real developments in the Arctic, i.e., meltdown and methane release, with no recognition of feedback lopes. Its tempo of the goal of decarbonisation is too slow and open to the flaw of all coordination, namely defection. www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/rem Research in Economics and Management Vol. 3, No. 3, 2018 188 Published by SCHOLINK INC.
To understand why the natural scientists' prediction of abrupt climate change has no impact upon business as usual in states and markets, one must turn to recent advances in the social sciences, especially game theory with asymmetric information.
Before we look at defection, we explain why energy change on a large scale is improbable. The existing situation has tremendous "normative power", declared German political scientist Jellinek.

Energy and Its Implications for Mankind
I suggest we analyse energy in a wide sense. The need for energy is obvious-see Figure 1.

Figure 1. Energy and Affluence Globally
Energy is the capacity to do work. And work is the Adam Smith and J-B Say sources of human welfare.
The growth in energy consumption since the industrial revolution and especially after the Second World War has been just immense, especially the supply of fossil fuels. In poor countries, the demand for energy is huge for economic development toward "catch-up", whereas rich countries are heavily dependent of fossil fuels for economic growth. The majority of countries in the COP project are in poverty, as they need more energy. Thus, they can only decarbonise when renewable energy sources become available. This is the redistribution task of C0P21: decarboisation against support for renewable energy by the Super Fund.
The living conditions in the poor countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia as well as the Pacific reflects the low level of energy employed. This basic fact determines life opportunities in a most dramatic fashion. The low access to energy has consequences for the environment and the life situation of people, including health, schooling, work, food and potable water.
For instance, African countries are poor because they have too little energy. Thus, they have much less GHGs than Asia. Yet, they need the COP project of the UNFCCC to renew their energy sources and move from fossil fuels and traditional renewables to solar power. Hydro power depends upon water availability that shrinks with global warming.
African energy deficit is conducive to a dire environment with enormous damages and risks. Consider the following global figures. Figure 2 shows how low energy leads to am unsafe environmental.  Figure 3 has the global picture.    The only way out of this dilemma is that all countries contribute to halting global warming by turning to renewables, especially the set of rich countries.

Figure 3. Energy and Electricity Access
Thus, energy consumption is closely related to country affluence. The poor countries can only improve living condition by increase energy supply. Their energy demand can only go up, because energy supply is highly skewed to the advantage of the rich countries-see Figure 7.

Figure 7. Global Energy Consumption 1990 -2016
Poor countries need much more energy, but of a new kind. They need assistance to move to modern renewables, as they will give up fossil fuel only if there is compensation by other new energy sources.
The enormous demand for more and more of energy comes with a major drawback, namely the GHG emissions. Figure 8 has the picture for the CO2s.  In terms of GHGs, rich countries have much higher levels of yearly emissions compared with poor countries, holding population constant. Only when a poor nation is huge, doe it have enormous CO2S.
Strict linear relation hold between GDP, energy consumption and GHGs, both on a per capita basis and on an aggregate country level. I will show one more picture ( Figure 9). dioxide does by capturing reradiated infrared radiation from the Earth's surface and subsequently warming the troposphere. It stays in the troposphere for about 120 years before moving into the stratosphere where it is conducive to the destruction of stratospheric ozone.

Figure 9. Nitrous Oxide and Energy
Climate and earth scientists have convinced a large majority of people that climate change occurs today.
And the new theory of abrupt climate change entails that huge feedback lopes will change the Earth already within the next one or two decades. It is a matter of Arctic ice meltdown and methane emissions from the permafrost that may bring temperatures much higher than the COP21 Treaty aimed at with uncertain disastrous consequences for both Mother Earth and mankind. Lots of natural science research still remains to be done in order to reduce the large uncertainties about temperature rise and its consequences for a number of vital outcomes for humanity. as the augmentation of GHGs stems from human use of energy resources.

Decarbonisation and Geo-Engineering
As CO2s have risen too much since the industrial revolution, they must somehow be reduced in total.
The COP strategy is to first halt the increase in CO2s and then reduce them, first by 30 per sent and later completely, which is of course utopian. Abrupt climate change makes this strategy obsolete, because it is too slow and ineffective. There are lots of innovative activities, but CO2s keep going up.
The only remedies are: 1) complete and immediate stop of coal and charcoal; 2) massive construction of solar power parks; tests of geo-engineering on a large scale. But these measures are too radical for global coordination and also the G20 nations that are responsible for 70% of total CO2s. Let us see what solar energy revolution would really entail in terms of management tasks for global coordination, assisted by for instance the COP21 Secretariat and the IPCC-see Table 1 with Morocco's giant plats as benchmark.  It will of course be argued against such a 40 percent speedy reuction in CO2s that it leads to economic recession. So may it be! But it would reduce future much higher costs. After all, economies adapt and will recover due to all new investments needed in a decarbonised world. Ramesh (2015) emphasizes that India needs much eonomic assistance for decarbonisation-a giant task for global coordination to assist poor nations! Let us look at the American scene in Table 2.   Note. 1)The United States has pulled out of the deal; 2) No absolute target; 3) Pledge is above current level, no reduction; 4) Upper limit dependent on receiving financial support. Table 4 shows the number of huge solar parks necessary for a few Asian countries. Given the economic advances in Asia, most countries need a lot of solar power parks for decarbonisation. The COP21 management would be able to help. Finally, we come to the European scene. Note. 1) The United States has pulled out of the deal; 2) EU joint pledge of 40 % compared to 1990.

Energy Plants with Asymmetric Information
The giant polluters have plans for enormous augmentation in energy supply, but they do not say that at the COP reunions (Conka, 2015;Vogler, 2016).

China
China now enters the First World, as it has long passed its "take-off" point in time around 1980 and has pursued a successful "catch-up" policy for a few decades. Its energy consumption, especially fossil fuels, has skyrocketed with GDP, resulting in the largest CO2 emission globally. Figure 10 has a projection for China.

India
In Indian energy policies, it is emphasized that developmental goals take precedence over climate change considerations. Thus, all Indian households must have access to electricity and only sustained rapid economic growth can reduce poverty. India has a "take-off" economy that delivers affluence for the first time since independence. But it is based on fossil fuels. India looks into other sources of energy, as long as socio-economic development is not hindered. Figure 11 shows the main features of future planning. www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/rem Research in Economics and Management Vol. 3, No. 3, 2018 199 Published by SCHOLINK INC.

Figure 11. India's Energy Future
Source: https://scroll.in/article/843981/indias-new-energy-policy-draft-projects-coal-fired-capacity-will-doubleby-2040-is-that-feasible India has rapidly become a major CO2 emitter due to its high growth rates since 1990. It uses lots of coal, stone or wood. Charcoal is bad for households and results in forest destruction. India tries to broaden its energy supply to modern renewables, like solar, wind and hydro power. Yet, it will remain stuck with fossil fuels for decades. It needs assistance from the COP21 project, especially for solar power parks. Building more dams is very risky, as global warming reduces water assets. Figure 11 indicates the India cannot meet its COP21 promises, as Ramesh (2015) underlines.

Brazil
Brazil is a "catch-up" with its "take-off" point long ago in the 20 th century. Compared with India, but it never really succeeds to close the gap to North America, tumbling now and then into dictatorship or recession. Figure 10 shows its stylised energy plans-are they in agreement with COP21 hopes of decarbonisaton? www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/rem Research in Economics and Management Vol. 3, No. 3, 2018 200 Published by SCHOLINK INC.

Figure 12. Energy Plans in Brazil
Source: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S0103-40142012000100017&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en Brazil has already a diversified supply of energy. However, since the country plans to almost double its energy supply, its dependence upon fossil fuel will grow, also upon coal. It dreams about building many more dams in the Amazons, but future water shortages due to climate change may make these plans unrealistic. The country needs COP21 assistance to turn to solar power massively, in order to eliminate first and foremost coal and charcoal. The rain forest is part of Brazil's emission picture where burning and logging reduce its carbon uptake.

Indonesia
Indonesia is like India a "taker-off" country, enjoying rapid economic growth with attending augmentation in energy consumption. The outcome is that this giant nation has quickly become a major GHG emitter. What make the situation worse is the burning down of the rain forest in parts of Indoneasia.

Figure 13. Energy Future for Indonesia
Such a phenomenal augmentation of energy is out of line with the aim of global decarbonisation.

Social Science Modeling Coordination Failure
The most influential social scientist ever, Max Weber from Freiburg and Heidelberg, stated in a famous passage the following about means and ends in human behavior: "Any thoughtful reflection on the last elements of meaningful human activity is first of all bound to the categories of 'ends' and 'means'" (Weber, 1922).
This model of mean-end rationality recurs in Weber's theory of public administration. Actually, Weber regarded the Western civilization as basically founded upon means-end rationality, or technical calculation, in both state (the bureaucracy) and market (the modern corporation). Now, we must ask: Can the global governance project COP21 deliver outcomes in manner that fits Weber's notion of means-end rationality? The main theories in public administration as well as in management entail that accomplishing the decarbonisation goals globally will run into difficulties.

Bounded Rationality
Herbert Simon developed his bounded rationality theory by emphasizing the cognitive limitations of men and women. He devoted much of his scholarship to criticize the relevance of the neo-classical decision-making model in economics to private management and public administration (Simon, 1996).
In government agencies and big firms, decisions could not meet all the requirements of full or www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/rem Research in Economics and Management Vol. 3, No. 3, 2018 202 Published by SCHOLINK INC.
completely comprehensive rationality. Instead, decision-making just "muddles through", as C.
Lindblom (1959) argued, following H. Simon. Not all means were known, not all their probabilities could be stated, and not all goals were taken into account-bounded rationality, i.e., incomplete marginal decision-making.

Implementation Hiatus
Wildavsky took up marginalism or incrementalism, applying it first to budget-making and then to policy implementation in general. When the national government decides about policies, how can regional or local governments implement these? Due to cognitive limitations and the rapidly changing situation, regional and local governments may reject the means and ends of the national government, and try other implementation strategy themselves (Pressman & Wildavsky, 1973, 1984. Policy identity could be entirely lost due to space and time. The same warning-Wildavsky's hiatus-applies to the implementation of the COP21 Treaty goals I, II and III: unintended and dysfunctional outcomes, goals displacement and unrecognized results. There may even in relation the COP21 Treaty be a risk for implementation disaster-what Olsen and March (1976) call the "garbage can decision process". So many players, so much noise, too large confusion about ends and means!

Rational Foolishness
Game theory rests upon the assumption of full rationality in behavior, meaning complete information and transitive preferences, but means-end rationality is far from guaranteed. In 1950, Albert Tucker The COP21 Treaty introduces a so-called common pool regime in Elinor Ostrom's (1990) theory saying that voluntary cooperation by those concerned by externalities can solve the free rider problematic. The COP21 is an extremely large CPR, instructed to protect a common pool with free access. Ostrom was too optimistic that CPRs that they can handle the PD gaming, as defection is always an alternative (Dutta, 1998).
The threat to this global CPR is reneging, which one big partner already has done. Turkey may follow suit and perhaps also Australia. The relevant model of the management of the COP21 Treaty is the N-person PD game, which offers numerous possibilities for defection: goal displacement, insufficient means, information cheating, lack of funding, internal political instability, global super power clash, etc.
To overcome reneging, there must be a system of selective incentives, sponsored by the Super Fund.

Utopian Strategy
World star economist J. Sachs preaches this message , but it is only ethics. Economics is, Insisting upon the positive nature of economics, "positive" referring to the understanding and prediction of the IS, one cannot but realize that sustainable development theory deals with the OUGHT.
The gulf between normative utopia and harsh reality forces one to look for how adherents of sustainable economics get from realities to vision. but now there are huge amounts of shale oil and gas. If fusion power becomes available soon, the energy-emission conundrum will disappear.

Reneging
In ocean games, the risk of coordination failure is omnipresent. The COP21 Treaty is a common pool regime, vulnerable to the n-1 problem (I can cheat on the others) and the 1/n problem (why do anything for others?). Governments can easily renege upon global coordination, as the US has already done.
How could such a giant policy be managed for such a long time without any control mechanisms?

Conclusion
Governments pay lip service to the threat of human extinction. It is business as usual among the Great Powers, in the Middle East and South China Sea, in markets and financial institutions. This is not what climate and earth scientists would predict, but it is in accordance with social science theories of collective action.
Given the evidence about abrupt climate change, the Left in the world has only one task, namely halt global warming. In the left wing new daily journal Social Europe, not one single article so far has raised the urgency of anti-climate policy-making in global coordination. No time for utopian experiments, as time is tight (Stern, 2007(Stern, , 2015.