Study on the Spatial-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Trajectory of the Coupling Coordination Degree between Carbon Emission Intensity and High-quality Development of Energy-intensive Industries

Abstract

This paper constructs the index of high-quality development of energy-intensive industries and calculates the coupling coordination degree between high-quality development and carbon emission intensity. In this study, the dynamic evolution process, regional inequality and convergence characteristics of the coupling coordination degree are investigated using kernel density estimation, Dagum Gini coefficient, and convergence analysis. The results show that (1) the full-sample coupling coordination degree fluctuates in medium levels, showing a two-stage inverted U-shaped trend. In addition, the highest coupling coordination degree occurred in the eastern region, followed by western provinces, and the lowest in the central regions. (2) Results of kernel density estimation showed a shift in coupling coordination degree from bipolar to unipolar; (3) the Dagum Gini coefficient shows that the general, inter-regional, and intra-regional variations all show an upward trend, suggesting a significant elevated polarization effect. Additionally, the primary determinants influencing the Dagum Gini coefficient reveal a pattern of “inter-regional variation - antagonism - hypervariable density.” (4) absolute convergence exists in the overall sample and in the eastern region, while it is not significant in the central and western regions. Based on the aforementioned findings, this study proposes policy implications for different regions in China.