Integrating Strategic Environmental Assessment to Climate Change Adaption in the Chao Phraya River Basin: Case Study Flood Management Plans in Ayutthaya

Traditionally, flood management has concentrated on providing protection against floods using technical measures, but there is currently an international shift towards a more integrated system of flood risk management, whereby flood risk is defined as the probability of flooding multiplied by the potential consequences. Climate change is a great challenge to sustainable development and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Thailand. The main purpose of this paper is to highlight the challenges associated with the current situation and projected impacts of climate change on the disasters and the human environment in Thailand, to review and explore the potential of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), and to propose SEA in making informed decisions relevant to the implementation of the new adaptation framework in a flood management plan. Thus, current measures on how Thailand is responding to the recent impacts of climate change in river basin planning are presented. It is imperative that an appropriate environmental assessment tool, such as SEA be employed in making rational decisions regarding adaptation frameworks. SEA offers a structured and proactive environmental tool for integrating of climate change adaption into formulating Policies, Plans, and Programs (PPPs) among relevant sectors.


Introduction
The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fully confirmed the occurrence of global climate change. The UNFCCC has already identified adaptation as Published by SCHOLINK INC. a devastating flood in 2011 when the entire area was inundated for over one month, and water depths exceeded 4 m in some areas. The province is also located at the junction of the Chao Phraya, Loburi, Noi and Pa Sak rivers. Ayutthaya City Municipality (ACM) is the local administrative unit, with 14.84 square kilometers with location is the island surrounded by the three rivers-Chao Phraya River, Pa Sak River, Lop Buri River, and Noi River, respectively. Moreover, there are natural channels such as Bang Ban canal, and Bang Luang canal. Furthermore, there are 13 irrigation projects to provide water resources to agricultural sector. The most of land use is paddy field more than 70 percent and build-up area around 18 percent in 2015.

Climate Change Increases Precipitation
Ayutthaya province is the one area of Thailand that has high volume of precipitation. According to statistic of precipitation in Ayutthaya province from Thai Meteorological Department in 30 years period (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013), during rainy season (May-October), total rain volume is 1,135.5. Each month has more than 140 ml/month, and rainy day is 15-20 day/month. While during November-February period (drought season), there are around 88.5 ml. Then in hot season (March-April), There are high precipitation from rainstorm, total precipitation in this period is 193.9 ml. Overall in one year, Ayutthaya province has long period of raining, around 8 months per year, and has high volume of precipitation. More over the trend of average annual rain volume is seemed increase every in period.
This characteristic of the area made Ayutthaya province has flood in area along river and canal, as well as the area where drainage system is ineffective.
Because Ayutthaya is located in the middle of the CPRB and it has an Ayutthaya Agro Meteorological Station which the data is available from year 2009-present. The climate in Ayutthaya consists of hot, rainy and cool season. The hottest season is in April when the temperature can reach around 31.5 Celsius. In June to October is the wet season where precipitation varies between 100-365 mm./month.
The cool season starts in December until February by the average temperature was 26.7-29.8 Celsius and the average humidity was 52.33-84.00 from 2009 to 2012 (TMD, 2013).

Responsibility of the Related Organizations
There are several organizations concerning in climate related hydrological risks and adaptation in the CPRB. The result of the interview of the key informants about policy formation and management by the government, in response to disaster can be showed as Figure 3. The first category is the central government. Interviewees from the central government were divided into five groups. The first group is the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) that has the main authority to allocate water to consumers. The RID's role is to follow up, check, and analyze the amount of water and coordinate with the governor provinces. While they set up the new unit namely Smart Water Operation Center: SWOC is under the RID to flood alert measure. They had already prepared flood mitigation plans and were working with relevant agencies such as Thai Meteorological (TMD) to keep update in the real time and plan flood mitigation measures. The RID has been working closely with all relevant agencies to make sure that the flood situation remains under the control. While the RID cannot prepare for unexpected storm including to predict the lowered water levels in the reservoir and prepare the amount of remaining room for water future. The RID cannot stop discharging water from dams to reduce the amount of water following into the Chao Phraya River and relieve downstream flooding.
Reviewing past, ongoing and planed initiatives related to risk assessment and adaptation, they said that in the past there had been no specific laws or specific policies on disaster management.
The key issues, relevant indicators, vulnerable urban areas with baseline information and future direction that the interviewees indicated the pilot project by the RID to flood management. The interviewees indicated the gap related knowledge and alternative strategies action or policies for improved adaptation. Most of policies or plans were given from the national level or higher authority like "Top Down" that make the lack of integration from relevant organizations and stakeholders. In 2011 case, a lack of coordination and communication between government agencies, their operations only followed a specific problem to solve before, during and after disaster. Knowledge base for people is not enough and insufficient. The people did not take the warning seriously and did not evacuate. The duplication of the authority of government agencies caused delays in performance. Moreover, the government agencies collected duplicate information and did not undertake monitoring or verification of the information.
The second group of the central government was the Hydro and Agro Informatics Information Institute (HAII) that has roles and functions to involve with Thailand hydrological risk prevention and resolution. HAII operated the hydrological models and tools for forecasting the flood and water levels.
They work with many organizations that contribute all aspects of water resource management. The data getting form this organization will be used for exchanging among the agencies that benefit for water resource management, disaster warning, minimizing the properties losses. There are many Weather Forecast Systems which have been operated by HAII. On the specific to CPRB, the model decision is based on the rainfall-runoff forecasting data to water resource management model.
The weather and water forecasting models are linked with the HAII computer system automatically as the computing network system. It shares the weather and climate information to the partner's organizations, which is operated by National Hydro informatics and Climate Data Center (NHC). The real time data is computed and automated with DHI Solution Software Program on the computer network. The sources of water related information can make an analysis on the water disaster risks. The  planning and policy making process and sector ministries should be improved upon. Capacity is a vial issue for SEA to be integrated into the spatial planning especially the flood management planning.
Finally, what is what Thailand need to promote, implement and enhance the SEA of policies, plans and programs into its legal and institutional framework. The author proposes the following course of action:  Extend the environmental assessment research as a line of research of critical importance for the country's context.

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Define the goal to follow strategic approach to develop the best practice.
 Conduct a comprehensive analysis if the Thailand legal framework to propose the best reforms that should be required.

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Trial the legal and institutional framework with the SEA approach proposed to report the advantages and improve the limitations that will emerge.
 Establish a whole new institutional arrangement to conduct the SEA in Thailand, but with the attribution to access to information needed to perform as SEA study in all level, and to promote an effective public participation in the decision-making process.