Towards Effective Measures for Curbing the Illegal Wildlife Trade: A Comprehensive Approach with ARIMA Modeling and Responsible Party Evaluation

Haiyang Sun, Xinjun Song, Tianze Zhang


Illegal wildlife trade has become an urgent global problem that threatens global ecosystems, biodiversity and sustainable development. This problem requires us to propose comprehensive measures to significantly curb illegal wildlife trade.We used data from government work reports from 2014 to 2023 to establish an evaluation system for the responsible parties, and found that wildlife conservation is very important to the Chinese government using the AHP-Entropy weight method. We developed relevant measures to reduce illegal wildlife trade based on Citespace's literature research method. Then we collected public data from Chinese governmental departments from 2010 to 2023, and used ARIMA model to predict the future of the initiatives we developed to reduce illegal wildlife trade. By collecting public data from the China Wildlife Wildlife Enforcement Agency and fitting the state of wildlife conservation based on China's national conditions over the past 15 years, we evaluated the available resources and found that while the overall trend of the Chinese government can reduce illegal trade practices, the trend is not stable in the short term. China's wildlife protection agencies can continue to increase enforcement of this problem to better reduce the occurrence of illegal wildlife trade behavior.

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