Social and Ecological Floods in the Attica Basin

Urbanization without industrialization, which is observed among others in many African countries and causes severe damage in the social system, leads to absolute or disguised dictatorships. This proportionally applies to the Attica basin, which counts up to 40% of the Greek population and 48% of the GDP. Marianne Fay and Charlotte Opal, in their article written for the World Bank entitled “Urbanization without Growth: A not so uncommon phenomenon”, highlight these phenomena in African countries, of course with significant differences between them, but also with similarities. In Greece, many similarities with these countries are also observed.

The importance of the provision of the various services in different countries, cities and states has also been highlighted by the European Union itself. EU's style government (the European Commission) is in Brussels, the Parliament is in Strasbourg, the Central Bank is in Frankfurt and the European Center for the Development of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP) is located in Thessaloniki, Greece. But also in the nation states there is similar decentralization; Austria, Germany and Belgium adopt such models (Papadopoulou, 2007).
In the following Table1 is illustrated the relationship between the capital cities population and the total population of selected countries in comparison to industrialization. The high percentage of Vienna into the total population of Austria is due to the fact that it was formerly the capital of an empire, with 21.8% of GDP into total GDP, which is more than double than the Greek one, while in Lisbon there are great similarities with Greece, which are still not as extreme as in Athens.
The critical point of comparison lies on the conjuncture called urbanization with or without industrialization, or Urbanization without Structural Transformation (Gollin, Jedwab, & Vollrath, 2012).
Our point is that the basic criterion to distinguish the two kinds of urbanization/agglomeration of the population is whether it is a pre-eminent or a late one phenomenon with regards the creation of the national state. The fact however is that this phenomenon describes countries without a democratic tradition, such as Egypt, Argentina, or Iran (Fay & Opal, 2000) and .... Greece. This labeling is not only supported by the writers but also by the pre-existing literature (Fay & Opal, 2000;Ades & Glaeser, 1995). Population overcrowding coupled with the status of the city as a capital, that is as a center of power, create an explosive mixture which cannot be dealt without indirect or direct dictatorship, i.e., regimes which do not lead to social progress.
Jan K. Brueckner introduces the term over-investment in housing in the case of the USA (Brueckner, 1997). Since such a term is used in the largest economy in the world, this applies much more in our case. However, most closely related to the Greek case is Spain, for which most of the surveys converge on the fact that home acquisition serves consumption (Arrondel, Badenes, & Spadaro, 2010).
To the term over-urbanization should be added the term over-investment on the dwelling in order to impress the incoherence of the Greek economic reality. The turbulence lies on the simultaneous high urbanization with high ownership, and even more on the fact that these phenomena occurred at the same geographical area.
Besides the historical, political, and economic factors that led to Attic over-urbanization, an additional reason is the so-called Wagon effect which refers to the tendency of people to repeat what others do without too much of thinking. This is another version of Emile Durkheim's mechanical solidarity. The main mistake in the worldview of Greek citizen and politician is that he treats urban housing as a productive investment and not as consumption. Guido Hischier, who conducted a comparative survey among African countries, identifies their governments as traditional regimes. These regimes, he argues, usually consists of an alliance between political power and a social class which stand hostile to the economic and social development (Hischier, 1987). In this context of population overcrowding, the urban bias phenomenon shows that economic growth is hampered by strong local interest groups, who due to their central location in urban areas, are able to exercise pressure on governments in order to protect or impose their interests (Gugler, 1983).
Urban bias, according to Marianne Fay and Charlotte Opal referring to African countries or Greece (2000, p. 8), is described as a financial urban bias, which seizes resources from the periphery and exploits them in urban areas (Chandavarkar, 1985). Charlotte Opal call it and they are virtually identical in the countries of Africa (Fay & Opal, 2000).

The Asymmetric Urban Settlement in Athens Today
While there is no shortage in the existing bibliography inside and outside of Greece (Saligaros, 2005) on urbanization and more specifically on urbanization in the Attica basin, there are political and social extensions to which are not given the necessary attention! Specifically for urbanization in the world and especially for Attica there is no lack of research from the perspective of the researchers. Thus, a few scholars examine Attica as an absolutely European case (Chtouris er al., 1993;Salligaros, 2005;Koukoura, 2016;Athanassiou et al., 2015) they even deal with urbanization in Thessaloniki. In an article of Greek-American origin, urbanization is being glorified in the ancient (reasonably) and modern Athens (rather unfortunately) (Polopolus). The city-state, which has given the world's civilization its democratic citizenship, devours its society today with greed. A relatively recent statistical survey deals critically with the Economic Crisis, Society and the Environment in Greece (Stamatiou & Psaltakis, 2015).  with the phenomenon of overurbanization, which, according to Josef Gugler, is observed when urbanization is higher or faster than industrialization (Gugler, 1982).
The data of the above comparison show that the population structure in Greece creates by itself an informal but powerful pressure group (Okeke, 2014), disproportionately higher than the one created in the comparison countries, by the respective population structure. If we take into account the weak economy and political progress of the country, then it is clear that social conflicts and environmental problems are expected to be particularly acute.
As far as the relation between urbanization and industrialization is concerned, as defined by the UN, we see that only in the statistics of the years 1961 and 1971, the industrialization rate in GDP surpasses that of the urbanization of Attica only, and then the population concentration of Attica in relation to the secondary sector's share it is initially doubled-tripled to quadruple in 2011, i.e., in 2013. This fact proves a total lack of planning by the state and the society.

Urbanism and the Construction Sector in Greece and Internationally
Urbanism is directly linked to the concentration of population and the development of the building sector where the population will live. Thus its management by the central administration of each state also shows its philosophy.
The Table 3 below (Note 3) shows the relationship between home ownership and urbanization, unemployment, industrial output to GDP and per capita income in 14 countries of the European Union, Switzerland and the United States.  (GRESYE, 1987(GRESYE, , 1994(GRESYE, -1995 From all these statistics, it is easy to conclude that housing expenditure in Greece has been increased one and a half times the GDP between 1953 and 2000, while in Germany between 1950 and 2006 GDP has been constantly doubled the rate of growth than housing (Borger, 2008). Another factor in the macroeconomic assessment of construction-purchase costs, etc., is the increase in population, as shown in Table 2, has increased since the Second World War little in opposed to building activity and population overconcentration. From a macroeconomic point of view, the importance of the construction sector to GDP growth is considered to be of secondary importance. On the contrary, it is responsible for creating the so-called building bubble in the United States (Lehman Brothers), partly responsible for the current Greek crisis as well (Note 3). And in Switzerland there is the opinion that the rise in building prices leads to the impression that wealth is growing and so society saves less and spends more and over time borrows more (Meyer, 1998). The economic crisis that follows, as in the Greek case, of is a very negative precondition for a smooth functioning of the political system. This is because a good economy means good policy (Acemoglu & Robinson, 2013), or as Max Weber has argued, even in the case of the charismatic leader, the economy guides political power and is not guided by it (Weber, 1922). When the economy operates without macroeconomic planning but is considered to be a panacea or an uncontrollable and unbearable market, social dissatisfaction is inevitable and social conflicts are a direct consequence of it.
The building construction sector and construction in general are indispensable infrastructures, especially after anomalous times or wars, as Keynes rightly argued in his work, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (Keynes, 1936). The reason is that re-energizing the economy via the multiplier mechanism is being used for a certain amount of time. But its tooling, which is the growth for speculation, leads to building bubble and derailment of the economy. The multiplier is then low and speculation high. The structural problem of the construction sector, unlike other sectors of the economy, is that building is not being exported. The only case of using it as a permanent source of income is tourism, or renting a home where society does not have a high percentage of home ownership, but this is not the case with Greece as we have seen before. For this reason, the construction sector must be part of a more general macroeconomic planning and not be developed as it is (Osei, 2013;Mavridis & Vatalis, 2015).
On the other hand, the development of manufacturing reproduces lasting employment, while the demand for building activity is limited, especially when the population of a country like Greece suffers from low birth rates. Greece, the only country with a single-digit and a higher percentage of industry/GDP, fails to meet its needs with domestic industrial production, thus occupies the first place in unemployment. Demand for domestic industrial production has a beneficial effect on other sectors and, above all, on reducing unemployment. Each additional unit of industry/GDP percentage corresponds to a reduction of unemployment of more than one centimeter. Every man and every national economy in the world freely chooses whatever goods, but must produce them, or produce others that have a demand and exchange them, because if they do not produce them in another way, they will have to import them. But if consumption takes place without previous production, unemployment occurs, as evidenced by the above statistics for Greece, namely the single digit figure for the percentage of industry in total GDP and the unemployment rate approaching 30%.
This whole social conjuncture refers once again to the report paper written by Marianne Fay and Charlotte Opal for the World Bank entitled "Urbanization without Growth: A not so uncommon Phenomenon", where authors address these phenomena existing in African countries. The same phenomena seem to be noticeable in Greece too.

Political and Ecological Implications of Population Overconcentration in Attica
As mentioned at the beginning of Part 3 of this article, while the bibliography on the urbanization in Greece is not poor, according to the authors' opinion, has not been given the proper consideration to the political and ecological implications of population overconcentration in Attica. Therefore in this part an initial approach to a taboo issue for Greek data is attempted. Floods and demonstrations are not directly related but indirectly they are related. To make this population concentration speculatively possible to happen in a single geographical area, natural barriers such as river beds, forests, etc., may have to be circumvented. For instance in 2017 in the suburb Mandra, Attica drowned 30 people and in 2018 in suburb of Mati, Attica got killed 100 people in major fires.
This way there is an immeasurably strong pressure on the physical and social space when extreme weather or a prolonged economic crisis such as the period of modern Greece in which the public debt doubled the GDP (Note 4). On one hand the natural phenomena are created due to the dead end of the water bodies. On the other hand the social phenomena are created due to the impasses of the people who are crowded in a narrow geographical area, and so in every difficult economic situation erupt with incalculable indignation. Both phenomena have a common cause: the misconception of the economic priorities that apply to every economy in the world, but which were not implemented in Greece as required by rationalism.
Firstly, the relevant statistics are listed. From Table 4 we can conclude that human lives lose and economic catastrophes due to floods in Attica are very high. Compared with the rest of Greece, human lives lose in Attica is analogically three times higher (Lialios, 2017). Compared to other over-concentrated areas, we see that in Namibia for example, the cost of reconstruction of the transport infrastructure was estimated to be almost 350 million USD after the major floods in 2009 (Freire, Lall, & Leipziger, 2014;Henderson, 2014). Similar studies prove that urbanization has diversified river beds and increased floods (Hollis, 1975).

Table 4. Number of Floods and Flood Victims in
In modern times many demonstrations take place in different cities of the world. Unlike in case of Athens where the causes are located in the internal sociopolitical status, elsewhere demonstrations take place due to external factors. In Hong Kong, for example, demonstrations happen due to the refusal of the region to be incorporated into China (Dapiran, 2017), in New Mexico due to NAFTA (Note 5) and in Berlin for or against the entry of foreigners into the country (Note 6).    (4-8-1936 until 1940), and the second case of Papadopoulos (21-4-1967 until 20-7-1974).
The overconcentration of the population in Attica is a structural and timeless problem of Greece.
In any case, the number of demonstrations is abnormally high and refers to the social upheavals they are talking about Marianne Fay and Charlotte Opal (Civil disturbance or politically motivated violence, p. 16).
The principle of the so-called Wagon effect is applied again in the exercise of power. Every government exercises across the country the same form of power that its predecessor assumed to be necessary to cope with the social discomfort of Attic overurbanization. and sometimes human lives as well (Note 11). These right-wing or left-wing ideologists were known under the term "parastate" (Note 12).
In a similar way, deliberate and systematic obstacles are raised to prevent upward social mobility both in the business sector and in the educational process, which makes it more difficult for society to understand exactly what is happening.
So, with regard to the economic environment, the tax jurisprudence, from 1975 to 2017 has changed, 250 times! (Hatzinikolaou & Liagou, 2017). At the same time, the system of enrolment examinations for tertiary education has changed 40 times! (Note 13) Semeiotically, the phrase used by Greeks as an indirect assumption of the gap that is observed in every sphere of social life between Greece and the rest of Europe when they want to point out something wrong is "in Europe" and not "in the rest of Europe". (Note 14)

The Systemic Presentation of Attic Urbanization
Taking into account the empirical evidence presented in the previous chapters, Attic urbanization could be represented by viciousness as follows: After all these disasters we have not, but we need to have a state policy review as K. Smith rightly argues (Smith, 2006

Conclusions-Proposals
The answer to overurbanization is decentralization. The overcrowding of the population in the Attica basin has led to a number of economic, social, political and ecological problems. As discussed, Greece and Spain as countries with high percentage of ownership and low participation of industry in GDP, show the highest unemployment. Thus measures must be taken to enhance employment not in Athens, as the act Nr. 296/10-7-2007 foresees for Aspropirgos which is 19,2 Km far from Athens city center, but in the remote periphery.
Following the European Union paradigm, it very important to decentralize the provision of the various public services in different cities rather than keep them in Athens, the capital. This will create new jobs at the remote areas and will attract people to move, settle and prosper there. This will than attract private investments and so on so forth.
Therefore it is necessary to give a reversed direction to policy which will exfoliates the pressure in Attica and will revitalize the sub-regional areas.
Unfortunately, the more time the developments run without central planning and programming, the harder decisions must then be made to partially correct at least the mess. The private economy and free citizens are not subject to the second phase of the state's will-to-state correction as state actors. So such a policy would start with the transfer of powerful poles outside the capital. Decentralization would lead to the decompression of the political system and would make the mechanisms of indirect suppression unnecessary and thus gradually democratize the political system. Decartelization will save people life and properties and will give extra space to individuals for physical and emotional self development which will lead to less physical and mental illness. Decartelization will also give space to the environment and nature and will bring back the chased by the overbuild space Flora and Fauna.
Transportation of Ministries: The Ministry of National Defense would be more appropriate to be in a remote and critical area, while the Ministry of Agriculture or Rural Development would be in Thessaly. The Maritime Ministry of course belongs to Piraeus. The Ministry of Tourism could be based on an island. These proposals are based on the fact that public administration has to serve the economy rather than itself.
So there must be steady and timeless political will for: 1) Transferring public services by providing income incentives to their employees.

2) Transferring businesses by tax and other favorable exemptions and measures.
3) Opening all rivers that have been closed either by private or public decisions.