Appraising the Likely Gentrification Impacts of a Mega Transport Project—The Case of Crossrail

Megaprojects are defined as projects that cost a billion US dollars or more at 1990 prices. Mega transport infrastructure projects have the potential to affect important socioeconomic and territorial changes. They are often perceived as critical to the “success” of major metropolitan, regional and national development. The redevelopment of neighbourhoods offers many opportunities for regional regeneration, yet there remain concerns regarding the potential gentrification of areas leading to the displacement of existing populations and local businesses. This research applies multi-criteria analysis, a tool that is widely used in mega infrastructure project appraisal using the UK’s Crossrail as a case to explore the likelihood of gentrification and the displacement impacts of the project. This paper finds both positive and negative impacts. Different stakeholders express noticeably differing opinions regarding the project.


Introduction
The study of gentrification spans several decades. The process of gentrification has gone global. This concept refers to a process by which newly entering upper-middle-class residents displace original working-class residents. Gentrification has both positive and negative impacts (Lee, L. et al., 2008). In most cases, transit infrastructure development can result in gentrification (Revington, 2015). This research will focus on transit-induced gentrification in addition to demonstrating that the impacts of gentrification can be assessed by applying multi-criteria analysis appraisal methodologies, using the UK Crossrail as a case study to examine the likely impacts of this project. 22 www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/uspa Urban Studies and Public Administration Vol. 4, No. 3, 2021 The term gentrification was initially coined by British sociologist Ruth Glass in 1964. Her definition of gentrification is widely considered to be a classical characterisation. The classical definition of gentrification is "disinvested inner-city neighbourhoods are upgraded by pioneer gentrifiers and the indigenous residents are displaced. Working-class housing becomes middle-class housing" (Lee et al., 2013). The meaning of this term has evolved over time (Lee et al., 2008, p. 9). Revington (2015) noted that gentrification could occur through "new build" development on former industrial land. Davidson and Lees (2010) posited that such "new build" development in inner cities could also be regarded as gentrification. Lee et al. (2008) noted that although some researchers believe new build development cannot be considered gentrification, newly built gentrification is now a widely acknowledged aspect of gentrification studies. New build gentrification should not be misunderstood as urbanisation, which can also lead to displacement (Davidson & Lee, 2010). Gaining access to transit infrastructure may alter surrounding neighbourhoods through gentrification, as it alters the social and spatial distribution of accessibility benefits throughout the city, thereby influencing how urban land is used and by whom. This is transit-induced gentrification (Revington, 2015, p. 153).
The rent gap theory asserts that long-term disinvestment in urban cores creates a gap between sites' potential ground rent (its optimal, highest and best use) and current capitalised ground rent (the actual economic return from land use). Gentrification is a process that closes this gap (Revington, 2015 andLee et al., 2008). Revington (2015) postulated that access to transit has a positive impact on surrounding house prices, rather than an insignificant or even negative impact on surrounding house prices. These house price increases make homes less affordable for original residents (Lee, L. et al., 2008). Gentrification can attract a large number of middle-class residents to previously deprived neighbourhoods, contribute to social mixing, and displace pre-existing lower-income residents.
Gentrification can also increase the viability of further development, with the rise in the number of residents who can pay taxes, purchase goods and services and increased local fiscal revenue (Lee, L. et al., 2008). Gentrification tends to result in the tectonic juxtaposition of polarised socioeconomic groups rather than in socially cohesive communities. In the long term, gentrification can result in rich ghettos (Lee et al., 2008, p. 217). Lee et al. (2011) andSalter (2011) asserted that the outcome inequities of gentrification would eventually lead to class conflict. "Failure to attend to the information and concerns of stakeholders clearly is a kind of flaw in thinking or action that too often and too predictably leads to poor performance, outright failure or even disaster" (Bryson, 2004, p. 23). The multi-criteria analysis contains several steps, which include defining alternatives, identifying and analysing stakeholders, defining criteria and weights, establishing criteria indicators and measurement methods, overall analyses and ranking, reporting results and implementation (Department for Communities and Local Government, 2009). This research asserts that the impacts of gentrification can be included in the multi-criteria analysis of the project to appraise different alternatives. Some impacts of gentrification criteria can be added, and these related criteria will influence the outcome of the appraisal of alternatives. In addition, this research assumes that the impacts of gentrification can be appraised directly by applying multi-criteria analysis to the investigation.   Rising housing prices and increasing demand for housing will make houses close to the Crossrail less affordable. This will attract many wealthy homebuyers from the middle class or higher. The rapid rise in housing prices and housing demand will displace some low-income residents.

Increase Local Fiscal Revenue
This report points out that newly-built gentrification is a form of gentrification generally considered in the introduction. It is predicted that the new line will support the delivery of more than 57,000 new houses. Nearly half of the planning applications within one kilometre of an Elizabeth line station cited the new railway as a reason for the development process . Since the housing prices of the new houses are quite high, these new houses have attracted many middle and upper-class buyers.
The high housing prices make the working class feel unaffordable, and this rapidly increases the 26 www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/uspa Urban Studies and Public Administration Vol. 4, No. 3, 2021 number of middle classes in these areas, increasing the proportion of the middle class. This also has increased the number of residents who pay taxes, purchase goods and services, and thus, increase local fiscal revenue.

Further Development Opportunities
This report shows that gentrification is likely to increase the proportion of the middle class in the area around different Crossrail stations. The new-built gentrification will bring many wealthy middle-class homebuyers. Local social infrastructure such as hospitals and schools will be built to meet the needs of the population growth while more commercial and office space may be developed to meet the needs of the affluent middle class. These indicate that gentrification contributes to opportunities for further development.

Loss of Social Diversity
This report shows the predicted trend of a rapid rise in housing prices. The number of wealthy residents in this area will increase rapidly. However, the working class may not be able to buy expensive houses in this area. This report believes that this will allow the area to accumulate a large number of wealthy people. This report also indicates that the displacement effect is very likely to occur. These will lead to the loss of social diversity in these areas, and these areas will become an affluent ghetto.

Community Resentment and Conflict
The local residents have no distinct objections to this project. This report believes that although much literature thinks that gentrification will cause local resentment and opposition, this will be less obvious due to the low local opposition level to this project that can be found.

Multi-criteria Appraisal Result
Crossrail will be used as an example. The previous part of the report analysed the many effects of gentrification. Hence, the appraisal criteria will be generated based on the impacts of gentrification analysis of the report. The table 1 and 2 below show the appraisal criteria.
The basis for measuring the effect of gentrification is the evidence found in the analysis. According to the analysis result, the measurement score will be determined from 1 to 5. Since gentrification can have both positive and negative effects, this method will appraise the positive and negative effects separately.
1 represents a very weak impact, 2 represents a weak impact, 3 represents a moderate impact, 4 represents a strong impact, and 5 represents a very strong impact. Scores are given based on previous evidence analysis.

Figure 5. Stakeholders' Categories Diagram
The introduction part of this report points out that stakeholders need to be clearly identified. Figure 5 is a list of stakeholders compiled by the Crossrail Corporation. This report attempts to use some of the stakeholders in the list to assess the impacts of gentrification. One limitation of this report is that it does not conduct a comprehensive review of all stakeholders. This report uses 3 stakeholder groups for analysis; which are the means of transportation in London, local residents within 1000 km of Crossrail stations, and the borough councils in which Crossrail stations are located. This report attempts to measure the criteria from a standard point of view.
www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/uspa Urban Studies and Public Administration Vol. 4, No. 3, 2021 The role-play is made by imagining how the stakeholders will measure each criterion based on the author's understanding of their opinions through extensive reading of relevant documents. Under the influence of these stakeholders, the author of this report has given weight to each criterion. This report will use 1 to 5 to represent the weighted scale. 5 represents very important, 4 represents important, 3 represents important to some extent, 2 represents less important, and 1 represents not important.

Discussion
Gentrification has both positive and negative effects on the surrounding neighbourhoods. The impacts of gentrification can be appraised through multi-criteria analysis. Since gentrification can cause both positive and negative effects, this report believes their positive and negative effects can be appraised separately. Using multi-criteria analysis to explore the positive and negative effects of gentrification and incorporating the views of different stakeholders can help planners and developers to better 29 Published by SCHOLINK INC.
www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/uspa Urban Studies and Public Administration Vol. 4, No. 3, 2021 understand the potential effects of gentrification, the impact of gentrification on different stakeholders, and how different stakeholders think about gentrification and its impacts.