Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Burglary Incidents in Leeds: A Study from 2021 to 2022

Abstract

In the era of globalization and informatization, urban crime, especially residential burglary, poses a significant threat to societal well-being. This study critically examines the spatial distribution patterns of residential burglaries in Leeds for the years 2021 and 2022, and their temporal variations. Utilizing the global Moran's I and Local Moran's I for assessing spatial autocorrelation, the research identified a consistent and significant spatial association in burglary incidents, displaying persistent and stable patterns throughout the observed period. Additionally, with the aid of Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), the study pinpointed that burglary cases are predominantly concentrated in the central urban region, gradually dissipating towards the suburbs. Finally, employing the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model to analyze the determinants of residential burglaries, the results indicated a close association between burglary densities and environmental factors.