Economic Security Impacts and Risk Prevention for China under the US-EU Trade Agreement

Abstract

In August 2025, the United States and Europe concluded the Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade Agreement (hereinafter referred to as the US-EU Agreement), which aims to advance transatlantic economic integration with a focus on national economic security. This agreement creates a more exclusive economic partnership between the two parties. Through mechanisms such as reciprocal tariffs and regulatory alignment, the agreement places significant pressure on China, including restrictions on export opportunities, higher corporate compliance costs, and increased technological barriers. These challenges could lead to deeper structural risks, such as the potential for industrial path dependency, forced adjustments to supply chains, and diminishing influence in global governance. In response, China needs to strengthen its support for scientific and technological innovation, enhance the resilience of its supply chains, diversify its market strategies, and deepen its commitment to rule-based international cooperation. By developing a robust framework for national economic security governance, China will be better positioned to address the challenges arising from the shifting global economic and trade landscape.