Analysis of Spatial Characteristics and Driving Factors of Urbanization Level in the Yangtze River Delta Region

Abstract

The Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRD), a pivotal intersection of the "Belt and Road" Initiative and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, holds an irreplaceable strategic position in China’s modernization and opening-up. With the issuance of “Five-Year Action Plan for In-depth Implementation of the People-Centered New Urbanization Strategy”, scientifically assessing its urbanization quality and exploring driving factors have become increasingly critical. This study focuses on 41 cities in the YRD from 2014 to 2023, calculating urbanization levels via weighted nighttime light remote sensing data and POI data, analyzing spatial correlations using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), and identifying driving factors through the Multi-scale Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (MGTWR) model. Results indicate that urbanization levels generally rose but with significant spatial disparities—higher in eastern cities and lower in western ones. The region exhibits positive spatial autocorrelation, with eastern cities forming high-high clusters and western cities low-low clusters. Seven factors, including investment in science and technology, highway density, and industrial structure advancement, exert heterogeneous driving effects. level of science and technology benefits southwest regions more, while highway density and population density strongly drive western cities. Per capita gross domestic product significantly boost central-southern and eastern regions, respectively, and industrial structure advancement positively impacts all cities. These findings provide a scientific basis for promoting high-quality integrated development of the YRD and offer references for other urban agglomerations.