Evaluation and Analysis of Development Strategies for Pet Industry and Related Industries Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation and Gray Prediction Modeling

Abstract

With the deepening of economic development, the pet economy presents a multi-dimensional growth trend, however, the pet industry also exists in development dilemma. Therefore, this paper studies its current situation and factors affecting the development of the pet industry, predict the development trend, formulate effective development strategies to promote the sustainable development of the pet industry, and is committed to the deepening of the process of economic globalization.

For Problem 1, firstly, data on the current development status of China’s pet industry industry from 2019-2023 are collected and visualized to analyze its previous development. Secondly, the weights of the indicators of the development factors of China’s pet industry are measured using the expected value method, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to establish a comprehensive evaluation index system for it, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation scores are obtained for each year from 2019 to 2023. Finally, using the gray prediction model to predict the development trend of China’s pet industry in the next three years, it is found that the overall development of China’s pet industry will show a steady upward trend, but the penetration rate of pet households is decreasing year by year.

For Problem 2, the effective data of global pet food demand from 2018-2023 are collected to explore the development of global pet industry through data visualization. Secondly, the entropy weight-TOPSIS method is utilized to obtain the relative proximity C value of global pet food demand for each year from 2018-2023. Constructing the gray prediction model and multiple linear regression model to predict the overall development of global pet food demand indicators-relative proximity C value and specific development data, we get that the overall pet food demand is on the rise, and the predicted results of the global pet food demand in 2024-2026 are US$ 152.32 billion, US$ 18.534 billion, and US$ 22.001 billion, respectively.

For Problem 3, firstly, a ridge regression model is used to calculate China’s pet food production and export volume from 2019-2023. Secondly, using the gray forecasting model, without considering the economic policy, based on the global pet food market demand trend and China’s development, China’s pet food production is forecasted to be 290,161 million pieces, 598,962 million pieces and 12,364,402 million pieces, and demand is forecasted to be 1,509 million pieces, 1,877 million pieces and 2,335 million pieces, respectively, for the period of 2024-2026.

For Problem 4, firstly, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is utilized to solve the impact of the foreign economic policies of Europe and the United States on the pet food industry, and the impact scores of the foreign trade, foreign investment, monetary policy and tariff policy of Europe and the United States on China’s pet food industry are obtained to be 46.45, 51.22, 16.67 and 37.78 respectively, and to formulate the strategy of sustainable development of China’s pet food industry.