Spatiotemporal Evolution and Early Warning for the Non-Agriculturalization of Cultivated Land Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation in Guizhou Province

Abstract

The non-agriculturalization of cultivated land (NACL) poses a serious threat to food security and sustainable development. This study aims to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of NACL in Guizhou Province, construct a hierarchical early-warning system, and propose recommendations for optimal land resource allocation. First, geospatial statistical analysis (2000-2020) revealed that the spatial pattern of NACL evolved from a scattered to a contiguously expanding one, with its rate increasing markedly from 2.7% (2000-2005) to 9.65% (2015-2020). This process was primarily driven by four key factors: population density, GDP, road network density, and cultivated land area. Second, the PLUS model was employed to conduct multi-scenario simulations and early warnings for 2035. The results indicate that the early-warning pattern exhibits a significant spatial differentiation, with higher levels in the west and lower in the east. Under the natural development (NDS) and urban expansion scenarios (UES), the risk of cultivated land loss in the western region is intensified, with most areas classified at or above the moderate warning level. In contrast, the cultivated land conservation (CCS) effectively curbs NACL and built-up land expansion, thereby not only reducing warning levels but also aligning more closely with sustainable development goals. This study provides a scientific basis for refining cultivated land conservation policies and promoting sustainable land use.