Evaluation of Social–Ecological System Stability and Analysis of Its Influencing Factors in Karst Desertification Control Areas

Abstract

A stable social-ecological system can more effectively respond to natural disasters, climate change, and human-induced disturbances. Karst desertification control areas are subject to the dual constraints of ecological restoration and economic development; however, research on the stability of social-ecological systems in such regions remains limited. Therefore, this study developed a social-ecological system stability evaluation framework to assess the stability of three desertification control areas with varying degradation levels, and subsequently applied a factor contribution model and an obstacle degree diagnostic model to analyze the key determinants influencing system stability. The study found that: (1) The stability of the Qingzhen study area (0.3920) was higher than that of the Salaxi study area (0.3162), which in turn exceeded that of the Huajiang study area (0.2154). (2) Indicators across the study areas exhibited clear asymmetry between contribution and obstacle degrees, with no one-to-one correspondence, such as high contribution-low obstacle or low contribution-high obstacle. (3) The stability formation mechanisms in different study areas shared common characteristics of “multi-factor co-driving and universal constraints from public services.” Specifically, the obstacle degrees of public service criteria were 62.44%, 57.63%, and 60.00% in the Salaxi, Qingzhen, and Huajiang study areas, respectively.