A Study on Economic Resilience of Mountainous Cities and Its Influencing Factors in the Context of Population contraction: A Case Study of the Central Guizhou Urban Agglomeration

Abstract

In recent years, with the slowdown of regional economic growth and significant changes in population structure, the issue of population contraction has received widespread attention. At the same time, there are new pressures and challenges in enhancing the economic resilience of regions. Therefore, a thorough investigation into the impact of population contraction on economic resilience is of profound significance for the synchronized development of population and economy in regions.Based on this, this paper takes the mountainous cities in the central Guizhou urban agglomeration as the case study area, and comprehensively employs population change rate, entropy method, to study the spatio-temporal evolution pattern of population declien and economic resilience in the central Guizhou urban agglomeration from 2013 to 2022, and reveals the impact of population contraction on economic resilience. The results demonstrate the following:(1)In terms of population contraction, only Bozhou District of Zunyi City in the central Guizhou urban agglomeration experienced population shrinkage from 2013 to 2017; from 2018 to 2022, the number of areas experiencing population contraction increased to 11, presenting a distribution pattern approximately symmetrical on the east and west sides with the core area of the central Guizhou urban agglomeration as the axis. (2)Regarding economic resilience, there are significant differences in spatial distribution between the two periods. High-value areas show a spatial lock-in phenomenon, concentrated in Guiyang City, while low-value areas are distributed in the southern part of the central Guizhou urban agglomeration, highlighting the unbalanced development among regions. Additionally, due to the impact of COVID-19, the economic resilience level of the central Guizhou urban agglomeration decreased from 2018 to 2022.