War in Iran, The Future in the Transitional Era

Abstract

The article uses the historical principle of “free Church in free state” as the key to interpreting contemporary tensions in the Middle East. While in nineteenth-century Italy it sanctioned the separation between religious and civil power, today this distinction is impracticable in countries such as Iran, where religious leadership also exercises political control.

The US-Israeli intervention is interpreted as an attempt to change the Iranian theocratic structure, favoring an evolution similar to that of Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia, engaged in economic and technological reforms. However, the region remains unstable, mainly due to the centrality of oil, a resource that not only finances governments but fuels rivalries and external interventions.

The world seems to be divided into two blocs:  energy producers and consumers, with alliances dictated more by energy interests than by political ideologies. The Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for oil traffic, is the most vulnerable point, and its closure could generate global inflation and economic tensions.

The tensions and war in the area are also read for the economic fallout  (speculation, inflation), but above all in relation to dependence on oil and the inevitable transition to an economy “beyond black gold”. In this context, the role of renewables and nuclear power  to ensure energy continuity is emphasized, contrasting the Saudi model of modernization (Vision 2030) with an Iran described as more oriented towards nuclear leverage.

The future will have to deal with the decline of oil and the progressive transition to renewables, nuclear and, in perspective, fusion. Humanity will only play a central role if it can rely on science, collaborate and abandon empty ambitions such as wealth and power, which do not respond to real needs.