Making Astrology Look Respectable: On the Extraordinary Abuse of Economic Models in the EU Referendum Debate

Abstract

In June 2016, I released an article entitled: “Measurement without Theory: On the extraordinary abuse of economic models in the EU Referendum debate” in advance of the referendum on 23 June 2016 on whether the UK should leave the European Union. That article heavily criticised two reports that had been released by the UK Treasury on the consequences of Brexit, calling them “dodgy dossiers” for “grossly exaggerating the impact of the economic consequences of Brexit and providing no analysis of the risks from remaining in the EU”. This article reproduces the 2016 article and also provides an update on the state of the UK economy five years after the publication of the reports. It confirms that the only purpose the two Treasury reports was to make astrology look respectable.