An Analysis of the Trend of China’s Export Trade to the USA Based on R Language

Abstract

After President Trump came to power, in order to change the “imbalance” between China and US trade, he launched a trade war with China, which led to increase uncertainty in China-US trade and increased export volatility. Based on R language environment, this paper compares the advantages and disadvantages of seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) model and double-index ETS (A, N, A) model in short-term forecast of China’s total export value to the United States. Then, the double-index ETS (A, N, A) model is selected to predict the trend of China’s export trade to the United States in the months of 2009-2020. The forecast results show that China’s export to the United States has seasonal characteristics. The export fluctuation is smaller than that in 2018, but the total value of exports has decreased significantly. Finally, some suggestions are put forward.