Dengue Incidence and Climatic Factors

Abstract

Introduction: This study was carried out to analyze the temporal evolution of the incidence of dengue in Araraquara-SP, Brazil, from 2012 to 2016, correlating the incidence with temperature and pluviometry.

Methods: It was a cross-sectional design. The monthly number of cases from 2012 to 2016 was collected in the datafile of the Special Health Service of Araraquara-SESA of USP. Climatic variables related to temperature and rainfall were obtained from the websites of Agritempo and Department of Water and Electric Power, respectively. Statistical planning included incidence rates, and the tendency from 2012 to 2016, and it was studied the correlation between the number of dengue cases and each one of the climatic variables, considering the time-lag concept.

Results: The incidence rates were 52.68, 376.52, 737.39, 3,660 and 809.48 per 100,000 inhabitants. Significant correlations were observed between the number of dengue cases and climatic variables after 2-4 months for high temperature and after 1-4 months for rainfall.

Conclusions: The city faced an epidemic of dengue in 2015. It was identified the time lag in which hot weather and rain favored the occurrence of new cases: 2 to 4 months later for high temperature, and 1 to 4 months later for rainfall.