The Gains and Losses of U.S. Central Asia Policy in the Context of Geopolitical Rivalry

Abstract

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Central Asian region has undergone profound geopolitical transformations. With the successive independence of the five Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan—a power vacuum emerged, enabling the United States to engage comprehensively in Central Asian affairs. This theoretical paper aims to analyze the evolution of U.S. policy in Central Asia through a geopolitical lens, identifying the core objectives, strategic shifts, and assess the gains and losses of its policies in the region. The findings indicate that U.S. policy has transitioned through three phases: (1) the "power vacuum period" prioritizing stability and independence from Russian influence, (2) the "forceful intervention period" following 9/11 focused on counterterrorism and democratization, and (3) the "strategic balancing period" after the Afghanistan withdrawal emphasizing multilateral cooperation and economic interests. While the U.S. has established a degree of presence in Central Asia, its long-term influence remains constrained by Russia’s enduring historical and cultural ties and the rising economic presence of other powers. Due to five Central Asian countries historical reality, the U.S. Central Asia policy should aim at promoting regional economic development and improving people's livelihood rather than ideological control.