Modeling the Future Olympic Games by Entropy Evaluation

Abstract

The goal of the IOC is to increase the number of sports, disciplines and events (SDEs), that resonate with modern values and appeal to a global audience (SDEs) to keep the Games relevant and influential. To evaluate which SDEs should be added to or removed from the 2032 Summer Olympics. We will create several mathematical models to evaluate SDEs against these criteria to provide sound recommendations. The model will be used for quantitative decisions to determine which SDEs are best suited to the evolving vision of the Olympic Games.

In problem 1, there are five factors which are comprehensive global participation, gender ratio, environmental factors (carbon emissions, water use, ecological impact, energy use, waste use), cultural impact and attractiveness. Each factor is considered as a variable in these models. And the properties of these variables are supposed to be determined. Some are quantitative and some are qualitative. And some are constant, some are variable. In the five factors: comprehensive global participation is constant and quantitative. Gender ratio and environmental factors are variable and quantitative. Cultural impact and attractiveness are constant and qualitative.

In problem 2, according to the factors, we build up a model or several models to evaluate the effects of these factors to the SDEs. And through the models, we get scores that can be used to help IOC to find whether the SDEs can meet the needs of the IOC or not and whether they can be added in the future Olympics Games or not.  

In problem 3, the models will be tested on at least three SDEs added or removed from the most recent Olympic Games (i.e., the 2020, 2024, and 2028 Games), as well as at least three SDEs that have appeared in consecutive Olympic programs since the 1988 Olympics or earlier. The data in HiMCM_Olympic_Data.xlsx provides information on the sports and disciplines that have appeared in each Olympic Games since the formation of the modern Olympic Games, as well as the number of events. The general applicability of the model is highlighted by selecting different sets of SDEs for evaluation. These models confirm the current Olympic status of these SDEs. The Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model can be used to calculate the entropy of each influencing factor of a sport, then calculate their respective weights, and finally calculate the total score of the sport and compare it with the standard score to see weather the sport can be added.

In problem 4, identify three SDEs that could be added to as part of the 2032 Brisbane Games and list them first, second and third. In addition, there are other SDEs that should be determined whether they can be added to Olympics Games in 2036 and beyond. As result, there are two SDEs added to Olympics in 2036.

In problem 5, by using the method model TOPSIS, the models are able to calculate the respective weights of each factor, and the models will be performed a sensitivity analysis to address the robustness of the model and determine that the weight of what aspects of the model is high, and discus that doesn’t the high weight of the aspect affect the model a lot. Then, through the discussion, it can response the strengths or weaknesses of our model. Especially, when the aspect is seen as a decision-making tool to the SDEs.

In problem 6, writing a letter to conclude the results of all the models about SDEs and summarize the findings in a non-technical way. In addition, it should include our recommendations for which SDEs to add or remove and give an explanation why these models can support these conclusions. As a result, the models can well support these results.

One of the contributions of this paper is the creation of a mathematical models to evaluate SDEs to determine whether they fit the requirements of IOC and be added to the future Olympics Games.