Perception of Leaders and Developments in Turkiye’s Foreign Policy (2002-2018)

Abstract

This book argues that the fundamental transformation in Turkish foreign policy under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) from 2002 to 2018 is best explained by changes in the perceptions, worldviews, and identity-building projects of its leaders, principally Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ahmet Davutoğlu. Employing a constructivist theoretical framework focused on the individual level of analysis, it traces a shift from a “Passive-Western-Oriented” discourse to a “Proactive-Unilateralist and Identity-Based” one. The doctrine of “Strategic Depth” provided the initial intellectual roadmap, while the Arab Spring served as a critical turning point. The interplay between leaders’ evolving perceptions of Turkiye’s power and identity forged two distinct periods: an era of unproblematic commercial diplomacy followed by a phase of aggressive, identity-driven policy. The book concludes that, although structural factors were influential, the agency and perceptions of leaders were decisive in redefining national interests and macro-orientation.