Operational Performance Analysis of Renewable Energy Integration in Nigeria’s Power Sector

Abstract

Given the increasing demand for electricity and the underperformance of the Nigerian power sector, this study examines the apparent situation of renewable energy integration in Nigeria’s power sector by analyzing the renewable energy generated over time, and the operational performance of the generated energy within the power system. Using both longitudinal and ex post facto research designs, secondary data obtained from both the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission and the International Renewable Energy Agency database were analyzed. Descriptive statistics were used to evaluate the data, while time-series forecasting based on an exponential smoothing method was applied to forecast future trends, and an independent sample t-test was applied to compare the performance metrics between renewable energy and gas generation in the power system. The findings indicate that Nigeria’s renewable energy, particularly hydro energy, remains dominant, but its electricity distribution is significantly below the installed capacity owing to infrastructure limitations and transmission constraints. In addition, off-grid solar photovoltaics are rapidly expanding. In general, the study indicates that the underperformance of renewable energy integrated into the power system is mainly operational and not resource-based and that there is a need for policy focus to shift from capacity expansion to system flexibility and grid reinforcement to achieve a reliable and sustainable electricity supply.