Reasonable Planning of King County's E-bus Replacement Plan
Abstract
With the increasingly intensified global warming severe air pollutions, governments all over the world have begun or is right now looking for ways to fix the problem. Among all the solutions, sustainable urban transportation system is what many governments pay attention to because of their apparent contribution to the reduction in greenhouse gases emissions and pollutants. In this passage, we focus on the exact ecology impacts the promotion of e-buses will cause. On the other hand, the potential financial burdens the transitioning processes will bring are perceived by us in order to make a decent plan for the government to implement.
For the first part of constructing the model to measure the ecology impact of transition in one area, we start with the identification of King County as a metropolitan area suitable for prediction. Then we collect information and data of its local bus fleet and e-bus transitioning plan, find out the exact number of each type of buses (diesel, hybrid and electric) around these years and the emissions of corresponding buses. We use both ARIMA and Least Squares Regression to predict the number these buses in the future until the year the local government aim to complete the plan but choose the result displayed by the better one. In this case, we obtain the data for emission of carbon dioxide, oxynitride and PM10 in each year and evaluate the ecological impact. At the same time, we predict the data for the emissions later if the bus fleet keep the same and observed over 90% of decline when we compare the value after transition to the control group.
Afterwards, to estimate the financial cost, we identify the main parts involved in the processes of transitioning, classify them with one group of cost for long-term and the other for short-term---that is, changed as the plan is gradually implemented. We build models for each factor we identified and use Riemann Sum to unify the long-term and short-term costs. Based on the data we predict in problem one and from the local government’s website, we easily gain the financial implications of for about 50 million dollars in King County. Through the analysis of the government’s grant in other area, we roughly verify that 50 million dollars would be an acceptable cost.
Finally, in our 10-year roadmap development, we explored further into the population distribution of King County and the existing traits for public transportation. Our starting point in this article is to classify the urban pattern into four types of bus operation routes, and then define the passenger flow from high to low. At the same time, we define the total number of vehicles that need to be replaced for different types to develop transportation replacement plans. Based on our assumptions, calculate the carrying capacity of each type of bus in line with the passenger flow. Eventually, it can be proven that the total carrying capacity of the bus meets the transportation needs of all King counties. Then apply to other regions.
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PDFDOI: https://doi.org/10.22158/sssr.v5n2p98
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