The Illusion of Escalation: A Critical Reassessment of Rising Trends in Colorectal Cancer Incidence: Case of Lebanon

Abstract

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is widely recognized as an increasing global health issue, with many studies noting rising case numbers and forecasting significant future impacts. This paper critically evaluates the accuracy of these projections, suggesting that the perceived rise in CRC cases is primarily driven by three major non-epidemiological factors: global population growth, advances in medical information systems and cancer registries, and greater public awareness from health campaigns. When these factors are considered, the notion of a CRC surge may be greatly overstated. This work advocates for a revised understanding of CRC trends that includes raw incidence data alongside demographic, technological, and social changes. To support this, a quantitative analysis was conducted using secondary historical data from 1995 to 2025, employing multiple regression, robustness checks, and descriptive statistics. The findings indicate that awareness campaigns and internet access significantly influence the reported increase in CRC cases in Lebanon. These results challenge simplified views of rising incidence and underscore the importance of accounting for reporting and awareness efforts. They help clarify the actual factors affecting decision-making and guide prevention strategies by government agencies, non-governmental organizations, and healthcare providers aiming to reduce CRC cases both in Lebanon and globally.