Evaluation for SDEs will be Added or Removed in the 2032 Brisbane Olympics

Abstract

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) is planning the 2032 Summer Olympics in Brisbane, Australia, and needs to evaluate which sports, disciplines, and events (SDEs) should be included or removed. Our team developed a set of comprehensive mathematical models to help the IOC making correct decisions that align with the Olympic criteria and rules.

In problem 1, we analyzed and listed out 17 factors that can be use to quantify the IOC’s 6 criteria. The criteria are Popularity and Accessibility, Gender Equality, Sustainability, Inclusivity, Relevance and Innovation, and Safety and Fair Play. We listed out 2 to 3 factors for each criterion. Some factors are quantitative and can be measured numerically, while the others are qualitive factors and can only be represented in scale.

In problem 2, we used the AHP-Entropy method to build our evaluation model. Specifically, we divided the model into three layers from criteria layer to solution layer. We give each factor and criterion their own weight. The higher the weight is, the more it can influence its upper layer. Combining the datasets and their weights together, a weight score is yielded. The sum of all the weight scores of one SDE is the evaluation score, which is the final result of our model. A high evaluation score means that the SDE aligns with the IOC’s criteria. We also setup a systematic approach to validate the datasets applied: through numerous calculations, a Consistency Ratio (CR) can be determined. If CR<0.1, then the datasets is valid and can be put into the model for evaluation.

In problem 3, we collected data from three recently removed or added SDEs and three traditional SDEs to test our model. We applied the data into the model constructed in the previous part and yielded these SDEs their own evaluation score. By comparing these scores, we found that the traditional SDEs have a higher average score than that of the two newly added SDEs. The recently removed SDE, on the other hand, scores the lowest. The results prove that our model can produce evaluation aligned with the IOC’s past decisions, thereby validating the model.

In problem 4, we predicted the evaluation scores of different SDEs in 2032 with Grey Prediction Model. We achieve this by creating accumulating sequences and solve differential equations. The predicted values of evaluation scores for SDEs are analyzed, and our recommendation is that Esports, Cricket, and Squash should be newly added to the Brisbane Olympics based on the analysis. Among these three, Esports and Cricket should also be added to the 2036 or afterwards Olympics, as they preform well in the mostly weighted factors such as

In problem 5, we performed a sensitivity analysis of our evaluation model and analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of the model. Different types of sensitive analyses are applied to our model to test it stability and margin of error for evaluation. In the end, our model has survived all the tests, illustrating that it is capable of giving out precise and practical evaluation.

Finally, we concluded our evaluation results and recommendations made based on them. We wrote them in a report and presented it to the IOC in form of a letter as our final solution to the problem.