Climate Change Policy Agenda Setting in the Five Central Asian Countries: A Multiple Streams Framework Analysis

Abstract

Applying the Multiple Streams Framework to climate policy agenda-setting in the five Central Asian countries has strong explanatory power. The study finds that, under their political systems, the problem, policy, and politics streams do not operate independently; rather, the politics stream is dominant. Accordingly, this study offers an appropriate refinement of MSF and proposes a politics-stream-dominant coupling model. In this model, the politics stream comprises the ruling party’s executive will and governing philosophy, the catalytic influence of public sentiment, and the actions of interest groups. The problem stream encompasses climate-change-induced natural disasters and feedback from international climate conferences. The policy stream includes national climate-change plans, policy recommendations from experts and scholars, and lessons from relevant international organizations and other countries’ climate policies. However, within this model, the problem and policy streams must first be recognized, vetted, and absorbed by the politics stream before the policy window for climate-change agenda-setting opens, which gives the process a distinctly top-down character. Moreover, differences in political institutions, economic structures, and resource endowments yield unique interaction patterns among the three streams across country contexts. Looking ahead, agenda-setting for climate policy in these five countries will continue to face the challenge of uneven development among the streams; sustained deepening of their coupling is required to keep the policy window open. This study provides a theoretical touchstone and a practical reference for China and other developing countries as they pursue climate diplomacy.