Demographic Transition and Rural Industrial Restructuring in China: A Case Study of Suqian, Jiangsu Province

Abstract

The synergistic evolution between rural demographic structure and modern industrial systems represents a critical dimension in implementing China’s rural revitalization strategy. This research employs Suqian City as an empirical case study, systematically analyzing demographic transitions and their profound impacts on industrial transformation. Based on census data, our findings demonstrate significant challenges: sustained population decline, accelerated aging substantially exceeding social carrying capacity, and pronounced skill mismatches that severely constrain industrial upgrading. To address these issues, we propose an integrated strategy encompassing structural optimization through policy incentives, industrial adaptation via inclusive sector development, and endogenous cultivation through enhanced vocational education. Our empirical evidence suggests that urban-rural integration supported by digital empowerment and institutional innovations can establish a sustainable “industries attract people, people boost production” virtuous cycle. These findings provide valuable theoretical and practical insights for addressing rural sustainability challenges, particularly in regions experiencing similar demographic transitions.