An Investigation into the Impact of Future Expectations on the Desire for Multiple Children among Young Adults of Childbearing Age

Abstract

Investigating the multi-child fertility intentions of young people of childbearing age holds significant implications for exploring population structural transformation. Against the backdrop of China's current severe demographic challenges, examining the influence of future expectations on young people's willingness to have multiple children helps uncover the underlying logic of their reproductive decisions—particularly the pathways through which asset expectations, subjective class expectations, and social security expectations shape their multi-child fertility intentions. This study utilizes data from the 2023 China General Social Survey database. It employs a binary logistic regression model to empirically analyze the impact effects of each dimension of expectations and employs heterogeneity analysis to reveal differences among various age and gender groups. The results indicate: Within the asset expectations dimension, housing area exerts a highly significant positive influence on young adults' willingness to have multiple children, while annual household income has a significantly negative effect. Subjective class expectations exert a significant positive influence on young people's willingness to have multiple children; commercial health insurance within the social security expectations dimension exerts a highly significant negative effect on young people's willingness to have multiple children. Furthermore, the impact of each dimension varies across different age groups and genders. Based on these findings, only by formulating targeted measures according to group characteristics can the desired effect of promoting willingness to have multiple children be achieved.